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Start
19.03.2026 20:00 UTC
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19.03.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa - Lille
2
:
0
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Aston Villa - Lille March 19, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.
Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.68 / X 3.93 / 2 4.97
- 1X2 market: Aston Villa 56.7% / X 24.2% / Lille 19.1%
- Total 2.5: over probability 50.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.1%
1
56.6%
X
24.2%
2
19.1%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5
50.1%
Under 2.5
49.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Aston Villa - Lille
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.97
market consensus · line only
X
3.93
market consensus · line only
1
1.68
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
2.19
market consensus · line only
12
1.24
market consensus · line only
1X
1.18
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.20
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.68
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
4.65
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.65
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.91
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.92
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.89
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.87
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.69 59.2% | 1.63 61.4% | 1.71 58.5% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.75 57.1% | |
| X | 3.80 26.3% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.18 23.9% | 3.80 26.3% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.05 24.7% |
| 4.65 21.5% | 4.90 20.4% | 5.19 19.3% | 4.80 20.8% | 5.00 20.0% | 4.85 20.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.91 52.4% |
| yes | 1.83 54.6% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.89 52.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.10 47.6% | 2.26 44.3% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.10 47.6% |
| home_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.20 83.3% |
| home_draw | 1.18 84.8% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.13 88.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.13 88.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 1.93 51.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.25 30.8% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.25 16.0% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 7.50 13.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.50 10.5% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.55 28.2% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.97 50.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.11 90.1% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.08 92.6% | — | — |
Match center
Aston Villa
W
W
W
W
W
Aston Villa
1:0
Lille
Lille
Aston Villa
3:2
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
Aston Villa
1:0
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
2:1
FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
Aston Villa
2:1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
5
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
1.8
Scored
0.8
Conceded
15
Points
Lille
L
W
L
W
L
Lille
0:1
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Lille
2:0
FK Crvena Zvezda
Lille
0:1
FK Crvena Zvezda
Lille
1:0
Frayburg
Frayburg
Lille
1:2
Selta
Selta
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.8
Scored
0.8
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Lille
Aston Villa
1
matches total
Aston Villa: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lille: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
Aston Villa 1:0 (12.03 17:45 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
1 goals (1:0, 12.03 17:45 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Aston Villa
1:0
Lille
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