Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.

UEFA Europa League World

semi-final. 2 match 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction

07.05.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 2 match

Finished

UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

World Football

Stadium Villa Park

Referee G. Nyberg

Aston Villa

4 : 0

Finished

Nottingham Forest

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Aston Villa — 54%

1 · Aston Villa54.1%

X · draw23.3%

2 · Nottingham Forest22.6%

Model estimate: win Aston Villa 54.1%, draw 23.3%, win Nottingham Forest 22.6%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest May 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.72 / X 3.88 / 2 4.69
1X2 market: Aston Villa 55.2% / X 24.5% / Nottingham Forest 20.3%
Glicko: Aston Villa 54.1% / X 23.3% / Nottingham Forest 22.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 43.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 55.2%

X 24.5%

2 20.3%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 50.9%

Under 2.5 49.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 60.3%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Stadium Villa Park (Birmingem, England), vmestimost: 42788

Referee Glenn Nyuberg (Borlenge, Sweden)

Start 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Aston Villa 54%

💹 Market Aston Villa 5521%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Aston Villa - Nottingem Forest, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Europa League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 2 match. Aston Villa - Nottingem Forest, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 4:0

Events 17

Statistics 22

Lineups 45

min Event Player Team

18' 18' Yellow Card | Morato Morato Nottingham Forest

36' 36' Normal Goal | O. Watkins | assist/sub out: E. Buendía O. Watkins Aston Villa

45+3' 45+3' Yellow Card | Jair Jair Nottingham Forest

46' 46' Substitution 5 | James McAtee | assist/sub out: Ryan Yates James McAtee Nottingham Forest

56' 56' Penalty confirmed | Pau Torres Pau Torres Aston Villa

58' 58' Penalty | E. Buendía E. Buendía Aston Villa

71' 71' Substitution 9 | Morato | assist/sub out: Dilane Bakwa Morato Nottingham Forest

71' 71' Substitution 10 | Chris Wood | assist/sub out: Lorenzo Lucca C. Wood Nottingham Forest

Metric Aston Villa Nottingham Forest SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.74 0.79 final

Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final

Shots off target 3 4 final

Shots on target 10 2 final

Udary vsego 18 7 final

Fouls soversheno 13 12 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final

Offsides 1 2 final

Aston Villa #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #23 E. Martinez, #3 Victor Lindelöf, #14 Pau Torres, #27 M. Rogers, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #2 M. Cash

Nottingham Forest #3 N. Williams, #11 C. Wood, #19 Igor Jesus, #24 James McAtee, #27 Stefan Ortega, #4 Morato, #8 E. Anderson, #16 Nicolás Domínguez, #31 N. Milenkovic, #21 Omari Hutchinson, #23 Jair

Player Team Metric SStats

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 1

E. Buendía Aston Villa football.player.assists 1

E. Buendía Aston Villa football.player.goals 1

E. Buendía Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 86

E. Konsa Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

E. Konsa Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

E. Martinez Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

E. Martinez Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

J. McGinn Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Aston Villa 55.4% 54.1% market and model agree

Draw 24.2% 23.3% draw risk

Nottingham Forest 20.4% 22.6%

xG - 1.78 : 1.07

Total 2.5 Over 43.8% - Under 56.2%

Model check - - Difference 0.02

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.02

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 54.1% / 23.3% / 22.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,823 / 1,746 Aston Villa / Nottingham Forest

RD 112 / 101 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.66 market consensus · no value · model 22.6%

X 3.74 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 54.1%

Double chance

X2 2.10 market consensus · no value · model 45.9%

12 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 76.7%

1X 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 77.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.14 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.62 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.28 market consensus · line only

2 +1 8.80 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.87 market consensus · no value · model 43.8%

Under 2.5 1.94 market consensus · value +9.0% · model 56.2%

Both teams to score

No 1.95 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.68 59.5%	1.76 56.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.78 56.2%	1.70 58.8%
X	3.90 25.6%	4.13 24.2%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	4.00 25.0%	3.75 26.7%
	4.60 21.7%	4.84 20.7%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%	4.70 21.3%	4.75 21.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.91 52.4%	1.89 52.9%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%	1.93 51.8%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.96 51.0%	1.97 50.8%
yes	1.80 55.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.75 57.1%	1.84 54.4%	1.76 56.8%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.18 45.9%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.00 50.0%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 1.5	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
Over 1.75	—	1.32 75.8%
Over 2.0	—	1.39 71.9%
Over 2.25	—	1.69 59.2%
Over 2.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Over 3.5	3.20 31.3%	—
Over 4.5	6.25 16.0%	—
Under 0.5	9.50 10.5%	—
Under 1.5	3.55 28.2%	—
Under 2.5	1.91 52.4%	—
Under 3.5	1.33 75.2%	—
Under 4.5	1.11 90.1%	—

Match center

Aston Villa

Founded 1874

Nottingham Forest

Founded 1865

Match center

Aston Villa

BK B. Kamara Knee Injury

RB R. Barkley Inactive

Nottingham Forest

CH C. Hudson-Odoi Injury

OA O. Aina Injury

Bubakar Kamara Alisson Amadu Onana Travmirovannye Kallum Khadson-Odoi Dzhon Viktor Nikolo Savona Villi Boli

Aston Villa Founded: 1874

Nottingham Forest Founded: 1865

Match center

Aston Villa

L W W W W

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 0:1 Nottingem Forest

16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 4:0 Bologna

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 3:1 Bologna

19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 2:0 Lille

12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 1:0 Lille

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

0.4 Conceded

12 Points

Nottingham Forest

W W D L L

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest 1:0 Aston Villa

16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest 1:0 FC Porto

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest 1:1 FC Porto

12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest 0:1 Midtyullann

26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest 1:2 Fenerbahçe

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa

1 matches total

Nottingham Forest

Aston Villa: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Nottingham Forest: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Nottingem Forest 0:1 (30.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 30.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa

0:1

Nottingem Forest

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Aston Villa

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Nottingham Forest

13 Games 15

11 Wins 8

0 Draws 3

2 Losses 4

24 Scored 24

8 Conceded 12

33 Points 27

65.8 Attacks 106.14

37.2 Dangerous attacks 56.71

0 Big chances 0

8.6 Shots on goal 17.13

4.92 Shots on target 6.2

aleniya 0.07 Goly Olli Uotkins Emiliano Buendiya 1:0 36' Emiliano Buendiya 2:0 58' Dzhon Makginn Olli Uotkins 3:0 77' Dzhon Makginn Morgan Rodzhers 4:0 80' Nakazaniya Morato 18' Zhair Kunya 45+3'

Aston Villa Nottingem Forest 13 Games 15 11 Wins 8 0 Draws 3 2 Losses 4 24 Scored 24 8 Conceded 12 33 Points 27 65.8 Attacks 106.14 37.2 Dangerous attacks 56.71 0 Big chances 0 8.6 Shots on goal 17.13 4.92 Udary v stvor 6.2 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.77 Uglovye 5.8 0.92 Offsaydy 1.53 11.46 Foly 13.2 53.38 % vladeniya myachom 52.13 1.62 Warnings 1.53 0 Sendoffs 0.07 Goly Olli Uotkins Emiliano Buendiya 1:0 36' Emiliano Buendiya 2:0 58' Dzhon Makginn Olli Uotkins 3:0 77' Dzhon Makginn Morgan Rodzhers 4:0 80' Nakazaniya Morato 18' Zhair Kunya 45+3'