UEFA Europa League World

09.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

09.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Finished

UEFA Europa League

Bologna - Aston Villa

World Futbol

Stadium Ренато Далл'Ара

Bologna

1 : 3

Finished

Aston Villa

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Aston Villa — 46%

1 · Bologna28.2%

X · draw26.1%

2 · Aston Villa45.8%

Model estimate: win Bologna 28.2%, draw 26.1%, win Aston Villa 45.8%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bologna - Aston Villa 9 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.57 / X 3.28 / 2 2.16
1X2 market: Bologna 26.8% / X 29.0% / Aston Villa 44.2%
Glicko: Bologna 28.2% / X 26.1% / Aston Villa 45.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 36.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%

1 26.7%

X 29.1%

2 44.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 44.6%

Under 2.5 55.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 44.2%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 0:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Start 09.04.2026 19:00 UTC

Stadium Ренато Далл'Ара (Болонья)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Aston Villa 46%

💹 Market Aston Villa 4418%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Bologna - Aston Villa

Bologna: Победа 3.75 Bologna: Ничья 3.25 Aston Villa Победа: 2.10 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.20 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.67 Индивидуальный тотал голов Bologna больше 0.5: 1.44 Индивидуальный тотал голов Bologna меньше 0.5: 2.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Aston Villa …

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:3

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 41

min Event Player Team

14' 14' Yellow Card | J. Lucumi P. Kalulu Bologna

28' 28' Goal cancelled | E. Konsa Maria Eleni Poulka Bologna

44' 44' Normal Goal | E. Konsa | assist/sub out: Y. Tielemans Maria Eleni Poulka Aston Villa

51' 51' Normal Goal | O. Watkins Ruien Zhang Aston Villa

65' 65' Yellow Card | T. Pobega Bologna

67' 67' Substitution 4 | T. Pobega | assist/sub out: N. Moro Bologna

67' 67' Substitution 5 | L. Ferguson | assist/sub out: R. Orsolini Bologna

80' 80' Substitution 10 | A. Onana | assist/sub out: L. Bogarde Aston Villa

Metric Bologna Aston Villa SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 0.85 1.57 final

Заблокированные удары 10 0 final

Удары мимо 5 4 final

Удары в створ 4 4 final

Удары всего 19 8 final

Фолы совершено 19 15 final

Желтые карточки 2 1 final

Офсайды 7 1 final

Bologna #2 M. Cash, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #14 Pau Torres, #23 E. Martinez, #24 A. Onana, #27 M. Rogers

Aston Villa #4 T. Pobega, #8 R. Freuler, #9 S. Castro, #10 F. Bernardeschi, #11 J. Rowe, #13 F. Ravaglia, #14 T. Heggem, #17 João Mário, #19 L. Ferguson, #26 J. Lucumi, #33 Juan Miranda

Player Team Metric SStats

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa football.player.assists 0

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Дриблинг попытки 4

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Дриблинг успешно 1

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Единоборства всего 1

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Единоборства выиграно 10

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Фолы совершено 1

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Сейвы 0

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Точность пасов % 2

F. Bernardeschi Aston Villa Ключевые пасы 30

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Bologna 27.0% 28.2%

Draw 30.4% 26.1% draw risk

Aston Villa 42.7% 45.8% market and model agree

xG - 1.09 : 1.47

Total 2.5 Over 36.0% - Under 64.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 28.2% / 26.1% / 45.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,736 / 1,800 Bologna / Aston Villa

RD 116 / 128 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.16 market consensus · no value · model 45.8%

X 3.28 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.57 market consensus · no value · model 28.2%

Double chance

X2 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 71.8%

12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%

1X 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 54.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.29 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.07 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.10 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.24 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.14 market consensus · no value · model 36.0%

Under 2.5 1.72 market consensus · value +10.1% · model 64.0%

Both teams to score

No 1.88 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.86 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
П1	3.10 32.3%	3.55 28.2%	3.83 26.1%	3.75 26.7%	3.80 26.3%	3.60 27.8%
Х	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.36 29.8%	3.25 30.8%	3.30 30.3%	3.25 30.8%
П2	2.28 43.9%	2.14 46.7%	2.19 45.7%	2.10 47.6%	2.18 45.9%	2.10 47.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.95 51.3%	1.99 50.3%	1.81 55.3%	1.80 55.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.90 52.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.89 52.9%	1.93 51.8%
yes	1.77 56.5%	1.82 55.0%	1.91 52.4%	1.95 51.3%	1.87 53.5%	1.90 52.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.91 52.4%	1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
draw_away	1.35 74.1%	1.31 76.3%	1.28 78.1%	1.30 76.9%	1.25 80.0%	1.29 77.5%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.29 77.5%	1.29 77.5%
home_draw	1.60 62.5%	1.76 56.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.75 57.1%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.06 94.3%	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.03 97.1%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.05 95.2%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.19 84.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.33 75.2%	—	—
ТБ 2.25	—	1.84 54.4%	—
ТБ 2.5	2.00 50.0%	2.09 47.9%	—
ТБ 3.5	3.55 28.2%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	3.20 31.3%	—	—
ТМ 2.25	—	2.06 48.5%	—
ТМ 2.5	1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%	—
ТМ 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—	—

Match center

Bologna

Founded 1909

Aston Villa

Founded 1874

Match center

Bologna

ŁS Ł. Skorupski Muscle Injury

LD Lorenzo De Silvestri Inactive

Aston Villa

JS J. Sancho Shoulder Injury

BK B. Kamara Knee Injury

Bologna Founded: 1909

Aston Villa Founded: 1874

Match center

Bologna

D W W W D

12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

Bologna 1:1 AS Roma

26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Bologna 1:0 Brann

19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

Bologna 1:0 Brann

29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Bologna 3:0 Maccabi Tel Aviv

22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

Bologna 2:2 Celtic

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.6 Scored

0.6 Conceded

11 Points

Aston Villa

W W W W W

19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 2:0 Lille

12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 1:0 Lille

29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 3:2 Red Bull Salzburg

22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 1:0 Fenerbahçe

11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 2:1 FC Basel 1893

5 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

1.8 Scored

0.6 Conceded

15 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBologna - Aston Villa

Bologna

1 matches total

Aston Villa

Bologna: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Aston Villa: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Aston Villa 0:1 (25.09 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 1 goals (0:1, 25.09 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 1

1 Goals conceded 0

Match history

25.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Bologna

0:1

Aston Villa

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.