Match center
Start
12.03.2026 20:00 UTC
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12.03.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo - Lyon
1
:
1
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Celta Vigo - Lyon March 12, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celta Vigo.
Line favourite market consensus: Celta Vigo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.00 / X 3.43 / 2 3.86
- 1X2 market: Celta Vigo 47.5% / X 27.8% / Lyon 24.7%
- Total 2.5: over probability 53.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.1%
1
47.6%
X
27.8%
2
24.7%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5
47.0%
Under 2.5
53.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Celta Vigo - Lyon
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.86
market consensus · line only
X
3.43
market consensus · line only
1
2.00
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.81
market consensus · line only
12
1.30
market consensus · line only
1X
1.26
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.84
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.40
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.68
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.00
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.04
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.81
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.95
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.80
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.93 51.8% | 2.09 47.9% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 2.05 48.8% | |
| X | 3.45 29.0% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.52 28.4% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 3.85 26.0% | 3.70 27.0% | 4.10 24.4% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.00 25.0% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.91 52.4% | 2.01 49.8% | 1.96 51.0% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.93 51.8% | 1.91 52.4% | 1.94 51.6% | 1.99 50.3% |
| yes | 1.80 55.6% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.77 56.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.77 56.5% | 1.86 53.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.80 55.6% | 1.86 53.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.80 55.6% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.35 74.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.25 80.0% |
| home_draw | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.22 82.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.15 87.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.33 75.2% | — | 1.28 78.1% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.00 50.0% | 2.04 49.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.55 28.2% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.00 14.3% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.50 11.8% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.20 31.3% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.80 55.6% | 1.86 53.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.09 91.7% | — | — |
Match center
Celta Vigo
W
W
D
W
L
Celta Vigo
1:0
PAOK
PAOK
Celta Vigo
2:1
PAOK
PAOK
Celta Vigo
1:1
FK Crvena Zvezda
Celta Vigo
2:1
Lille
Lille
Celta Vigo
1:2
Bologna
Bologna
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Lyon
W
W
W
W
L
Lyon
4:2
PAOK
PAOK
Lyon
1:0
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
Lyon
2:1
GO Ahead Eagles
GO Ahead Eagles
Lyon
6:0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Lyon
0:2
Real Betis
Real Betis
4
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
2.6
Scored
1.0
Conceded
12
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCelta Vigo - Lyon
Celta Vigo
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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