PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
16.04.2026 16:45 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

Celta Vigo - SC Freiburg

World Football
Stadium Balaidos
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
1 : 3
Finished
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Celta Vigo — 48%

1 · Celta Vigo48.3%
X · draw24.9%
2 · SC Freiburg26.9%

Model estimate: win Celta Vigo 48.3%, draw 24.9%, win SC Freiburg 26.9%. Model favourite — Celta Vigo.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Celta Vigo - SC Freiburg April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celta Vigo.

Strongest: Celta Vigo - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.89 / X 3.64 / 2 3.99
  • 1X2 market: Celta Vigo 50.1% / X 26.1% / SC Freiburg 23.8%
  • Glicko: Celta Vigo 48.3% / X 24.9% / SC Freiburg 26.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 42.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 50.2%
X 26.1%
2 23.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 52.1%
Under 2.5 47.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 6/8
Confidence 58.0%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 16.04.2026 16:45 UTC
Stadium Balaidos (Vigo)

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Celta Vigo 48%
💹 Market Celta Vigo 5008%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Celta Vigo - SC Freiburg

Celta Vigo: Win 1.85 Celta Vigo: Draw 3.60 SC Freiburg Win: 4.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.91 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.91 Individualnyy total golov Celta Vigo bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Celta Vigo menshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:3
Events 19
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
33' 33' Normal Goal | Igor Matanović | assist/sub out: Jordy Makengo SC Freiburg
39' 39' Normal Goal | Yuito Suzuki | assist/sub out: Jan-Niklas Beste SC Freiburg
45' 45' Yellow Card | Igor Matanović SC Freiburg
45' 45' Yellow Card | Ilaix Moriba Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Javier Rueda | assist/sub out: Jones El-Abdellaoui Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Ilaix Moriba | assist/sub out: Williot Swedberg Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 3 | Yoel Lago | assist/sub out: Sergio Carreira Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 4 | Borja Iglesias | assist/sub out: Iago Aspas Celta Vigo
Metric Celta Vigo SC Freiburg SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.6 1.06 final
Zablokirovannye udary 5 1 final
Shots off target 7 3 final
Shots on target 3 6 final
Udary vsego 15 9 final
Fouls soversheno 21 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 4 2 final
Offsides 0 0 final
Celta Vigo #1 N. Atubolu, #3 Philipp Lienhart, #8 M. Eggestein, #14 Yuito Suzuki, #19 J. Beste, #28 M. Ginter, #29 P. Treu, #31 Igor Matanović, #32 V. Grifo, #33 J. Makengo, #44 J. Manzambi
SC Freiburg #3 Óscar Mingueza, #6 I. Moriba, #7 B. Iglesias, #9 Ferran Jutglà, #13 I. Radu, #17 Javi Rueda, #20 Marcos Alonso, #29 Yoel Lago, #30 Fer López, #32 Javi Rodríguez
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Jung Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
B. Ogbus Celta Vigo football.player.assists 0
B. Ogbus Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
B. Ogbus Celta Vigo football.player.minutes_played 19
B. Ogbus Celta Vigo Klyuchevye pasy 7
B. Ogbus Celta Vigo Reyting (staryy) 6.2
B. Ogbus Celta Vigo Otbory vsego 6
C. Gunter Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
Cyriaque Irié Celta Vigo football.player.assists 0
Cyriaque Irié Celta Vigo Dribling popytki 2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Celta Vigo 50.5% 48.3% market and model agree
Draw 26.4% 24.9% draw risk
SC Freiburg 23.1% 26.9%
xG - 1.60 : 1.13
Total 2.5 Over 42.9% - Under 57.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 48.3% / 24.9% / 26.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,705 / 1,725 Celta Vigo / SC Freiburg
RD 110 / 118 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.99 market consensus · no value · model 26.9%
X 3.64 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.89 market consensus · no value · model 48.3%
Double chance
X2 1.91 market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
12 1.27 market consensus · no value · model 75.1%
1X 1.24 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.94 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.89 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.50 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · no value · model 42.9%
Under 2.5 1.99 market consensus · value +13.7% · model 57.1%
Both teams to score
No 2.03 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.72 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.87 53.5% 1.99 50.3% 1.92 52.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.88 53.2%
X 3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.84 26.0% 3.40 29.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7%
3.90 25.6% 3.60 27.8% 4.26 23.5% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.40 22.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.02 49.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.69 59.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.85 54.1% 1.98 50.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% — 1.00 100.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 — — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 — — 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1% — 1.24 80.7%
Over 1.75 — — 1.30 76.9%
Over 2.5 1.83 54.6% 1.97 50.8% —
Over 3.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4% — —
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.65 27.4% — —
Under 2.5 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% —
Under 3.5 1.36 73.5% — —
Under 4.5 1.12 89.3% — —
Match center
Celta Vigo
Founded 1923
SC Freiburg
Founded 1904
Match center
Celta Vigo
L W D W W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 0:3 FrayburgFrayburg
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 2:0 LionLion
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 1:1 LionLion
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 1:0 PAOKPAOK
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 2:1 PAOKPAOK
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
SC Freiburg
W W L L W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 3:0 SeltaSelta
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 5:1 GenkGenk
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 0:1 GenkGenk
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 0:1 LilleLille
22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 1:0 Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCelta Vigo - SC Freiburg

Celta Vigo
1 matches total
SC Freiburg
Celta Vigo: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
SC Freiburg: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Frayburg 0:3 (09.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 09.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Selta
0:3
Frayburg
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.