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30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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30.07.2026 17:00 UTC
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UEFA Europa League
FC Midtjylland - Besiktas
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 FC Midtjylland — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · FC Midtjylland): model 49% · market 51% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win FC Midtjylland 50.6%, draw 24.7%, win Besiktas 24.7%. Model favourite — FC Midtjylland.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1FC Midtjylland (odds1.84)
Score 2:1
confidence 51%
- • liniya na pik P1 1.90→1.85 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
- • Model backs FC Midtjylland: probability 51% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.84)
- • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction FC Midtjylland - Besiktas July 30, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: FC Midtjylland. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.85 / X 3.80 / 2 3.85
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.3%
1
50.8%
X
24.7%
2
24.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
1.90
↓ 1.85
1X2 X
3.40
↑ 3.80
1X2 P2
3.65
↑ 3.85
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
FC Midtjylland
1
:
1
Besiktas
11.88
X3.70
23.77
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
FC Midtjylland - Besiktas
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
Movement
Overview
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
FC Midtjylland
50.7%
50.6%
market and model agree
Draw
24.8%
24.7%
draw risk
Besiktas
24.5%
24.7%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
50.6% / 24.7% / 24.7%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,758 / 1,635
FC Midtjylland / Besiktas
RD
143 / 163
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,471-2,044 / 1,310-1,960
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.85
Fonbet · no value · model 24.7%
X
3.80
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.85
Fonbet · no value · model 50.6%
Double chance
12
1.25
Fonbet · no value · model 75.3%
1X
1.25
Fonbet · no value · model 75.3%
X2
1.90
Fonbet · no value · model 49.4%
Handicap
2 -1
1.53
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
1.97
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.90
Fonbet · line only
2 0
2.75
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.65
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.18
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.25
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.60
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 2.23 44.8% |
| yes | 1.60 62.5% | 1.61 62.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.25 80.0% |
| x2 | 1.90 52.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.35 42.6% | |
| X | 2.42 41.3% |
| 4.14 24.2% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.64 61.0% |
| Under 1 | 2.18 45.9% |
Match center
FC Midtjylland
Country
Denmark
Besiktas
Country
Turkey
Match center
FC Midtjylland
L
W
W
D
W
FC Midtjylland
0:1
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FC Midtjylland
1:0
Nottingem Forest
Nottingem Forest
FC Midtjylland
2:0
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
FC Midtjylland
3:3
Brann
Brann
FC Midtjylland
1:0
Genk
Genk
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.4
Scored
0.8
Conceded
10
Points
Besiktas
W
L
L
W
L
Besiktas
1:0
Midtyullann
Midtyullann
Besiktas
0:2
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
Besiktas
2:4
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
Besiktas
1:0
Lion
Lion
Besiktas
1:3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.8
Conceded
6
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyFC Midtjylland - Besiktas
FC Midtjylland
1
matches total
FC Midtjylland: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Besiktas: 1 (100%)
Biggest win
Beşiktaş 0:1 (23.07 17:00 UTC)
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
1 goals (0:1, 23.07 17:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Midtyullann
0:1
Beşiktaş
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