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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

FC Porto - Nottingham Forest

World Football
Stadium Dragao
FC Porto
FC Porto
1 : 1
Finished
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 FC Porto — 42%

1 · FC Porto42.0%
X · draw26.0%
2 · Nottingham Forest32.0%

Model estimate: win FC Porto 42.0%, draw 26.0%, win Nottingham Forest 32.0%. Model favourite — FC Porto.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Porto - Nottingham Forest April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Porto.

Strongest: FC Porto - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.21 / X 3.15 / 2 3.57
  • 1X2 market: FC Porto 43.1% / X 30.2% / Nottingham Forest 26.7%
  • Glicko: FC Porto 42.0% / X 26.0% / Nottingham Forest 32.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 37.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 43.1%
X 30.2%
2 26.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%
Over 2.5 38.6%
Under 2.5 61.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 43.1%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Dragao (Portu)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model FC Porto 42%
💹 Market FC Porto 4314%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

FC Porto - Nottingham Forest

FC Porto: Win 2.20 FC Porto: Draw 3.20 Nottingham Forest Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.50 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.53 Individualnyy total golov FC Porto bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov FC Porto menshe 1.5: 1.44 Individualnyy total golov No…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 14
Statistics 24
Lineups 27
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Normal Goal | William Gomes FC Porto
13' 13' Own Goal | M. Fernandes Nottingham Forest
15' 15' Yellow Card | G. Veiga FC Porto
19' 19' Substitution 1 | M. Fernandes | assist/sub out: A. Costa FC Porto
46' 46' Substitution 2 | Murillo | assist/sub out: N. Milenkovic Nottingham Forest
46' 46' Substitution 3 | C. Wood | assist/sub out: Igor Jesus Andre Nemeth Nottingham Forest
59' 59' Substitution 6 | T. Moffi | assist/sub out: D. Gul FC Porto
59' 59' Substitution 7 | B. Sainz | assist/sub out: Pepê FC Porto
Metric FC Porto Nottingham Forest SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.16 0.45 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final
Shots off target 5 1 final
Shots on target 8 2 final
Udary vsego 16 6 final
Fouls soversheno 4 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 0 3 final
FC Porto #4 Morato, #5 Murillo, #10 Morgan Gibbs-White, #11 C. Wood, #14 D. Ndoye, #16 Nicolás Domínguez, #22 Ryan Yates, #24 James McAtee, #27 Stefan Ortega, #29 D. Bakwa, #44 Zach Abbott
Nottingham Forest #13 P. Rosario, #29 Terem Moffi, #42 S. Fofana
Player Team Metric SStats
J. Kiwior Nottingham Forest Seyvy 0
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest football.player.assists 0
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Dribling popytki 3
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Fouls soversheno 2
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Seyvy 0
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest football.player.minutes_played 90
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Tochnost pasov % 3
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Klyuchevye pasy 55
P. Rosario Nottingham Forest Reyting (staryy) 7.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
FC Porto 43.9% 42.0% market and model agree
Draw 30.4% 26.0% draw risk
Nottingham Forest 25.8% 32.0%
xG - 1.43 : 1.21
Total 2.5 Over 37.5% - Under 62.5%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.0% / 26.0% / 32.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,710 / 1,703 FC Porto / Nottingham Forest
RD 122 / 112 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.57 market consensus · no value · model 32.0%
X 3.15 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.21 market consensus · no value · model 42.0%
Double chance
X2 1.65 market consensus · no value · model 58.0%
12 1.34 market consensus · no value · model 74.0%
1X 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 68.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.43 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.17 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.47 market consensus · no value · model 37.5%
Under 2.5 1.55 market consensus · no value · model 62.5%
Both teams to score
No 1.73 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.08 48.1% 2.14 46.7% 2.32 43.1% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.24 30.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.10 32.3%
3.50 28.6% 3.95 25.3% 3.63 27.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.60 27.8% 3.60 27.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.68 59.5% 1.71 58.5%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.99 50.3% 2.06 48.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.06 48.5% 2.02 49.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% — 1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.0 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.25 — — 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.5 1.38 72.5% — —
Over 2.0 — 1.82 55.0% —
Over 2.25 — 2.11 47.4% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.85 26.0% — —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 1.5 3.00 33.3% — —
Under 2.0 — 2.08 48.1% —
Under 2.25 — 1.79 55.9% —
Under 2.5 1.70 58.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
FC Porto
Founded 1893
Nottingham Forest
Founded 1865
Match center
FC Porto
NP N. Pérez Achilles Tendon Injury
LD L. de Jong Knee Injury
Nottingham Forest
TA T. Awoniyi Inactive
WB W. Boly Knee Injury
FC Porto Founded: 1893
Nottingham Forest Founded: 1865
Match center
FC Porto
W W W D W
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 2:0 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 2:1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 3:1 RangersRangers
22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 1:1 Plzen
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 2:1 Malmo FF
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Nottingham Forest
L L W W L
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 0:1 MidtyullannMidtyullann
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 1:2 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 3:0 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 4:0 FerentsvaroshFerentsvarosh
22.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 0:1 BragaBraga
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC Porto - Nottingham Forest

FC Porto
1 matches total
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Nottingham Forest: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Nottingem Forest 0:2 (23.10 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (0:2, 23.10 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto
0:2
Nottingem Forest
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.