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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
semi-final. 1 match 30.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
30.04.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 1 match
Finished

UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

World Football
Referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
1 : 0
Finished
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Aston Villa — 38%

1 · Nottingham Forest36.9%
X · draw25.6%
2 · Aston Villa37.6%

Model estimate: win Nottingham Forest 36.9%, draw 25.6%, win Aston Villa 37.6%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa April 30, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Strongest: Aston Villa - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.75 / X 3.23 / 2 2.64
  • 1X2 market: Nottingham Forest 34.6% / X 29.4% / Aston Villa 36.1%
  • Glicko: Nottingham Forest 36.9% / X 25.6% / Aston Villa 37.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 38.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 34.6%
X 29.4%
2 36.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 46.7%
Under 2.5 53.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: X

Main outcome X
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 27.6%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Stadium Siti Graund (Nottingem, England), 29 790 zriteley (97% pri vmestimosti 30 576)
Referee Zhoau Pedru Pineyru
Start 30.04.2026 19:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Aston Villa 38%
💹 Market Aston Villa 3605%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Nottingem Forest - Aston Villa, 30 aprelya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Europa League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 1 match. Nottingem Forest - Aston Villa, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 9
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
55' 55' Substitution 1 | A. Onana | assist/sub out: Lamare Bogarde A. Onana Aston Villa
69' 69' Penalty confirmed | O. Hutchinson Omari Hutchinson Nottingham Forest
71' 71' Penalty | C. Wood C. Wood Nottingham Forest
75' 75' Substitution 11 | O. Aina | assist/sub out: Z. Abbott O. Aina Nottingham Forest
78' 78' Yellow Card | Youri Tielemans Y. Tielemans Aston Villa
78' 78' Substitution 7 | Lucas Digne | assist/sub out: Douglas Luiz L. Digne Aston Villa
79' 79' Substitution 8 | Emiliano Buendía | assist/sub out: Ian Maatsen E. Buendía Aston Villa
79' 79' Substitution 9 | J. McGinn | assist/sub out: Jadon Sancho J. McGinn Aston Villa
Metric Nottingham Forest Aston Villa SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.56 0.79 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 3 final
Shots off target 3 3 final
Shots on target 5 4 final
Udary vsego 11 10 final
Fouls soversheno 7 11 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 1 final
Offsides 2 0 final
Nottingham Forest #3 N. Williams, #10 Morgan Gibbs-White, #11 C. Wood, #27 Stefan Ortega, #4 Morato, #8 E. Anderson, #19 Igor Jesus, #16 Nicolás Domínguez, #31 N. Milenkovic, #21 Omari Hutchinson, #34 O. Aina
Aston Villa #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #23 E. Martinez, #14 Pau Torres, #24 A. Onana, #27 M. Rogers, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #2 M. Cash
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.assists 0
A. Onana Aston Villa Dribling popytki 2
A. Onana Aston Villa Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Onana Aston Villa Edinoborstva vyigrano 3
A. Onana Aston Villa Seyvy 0
A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 55
A. Onana Aston Villa Klyuchevye pasy 16
A. Onana Aston Villa Reyting (staryy) 6.9
A. Onana Aston Villa Bloki 1
A. Onana Aston Villa Otbory vsego 14
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nottingham Forest 35.8% 36.9% market favourite
Draw 29.7% 25.6% draw risk
Aston Villa 34.5% 37.6% Glicko contrarian
xG - 1.36 : 1.38
Total 2.5 Over 38.9% - Under 61.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 36.9% / 25.6% / 37.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,722 / 1,853 Nottingham Forest / Aston Villa
RD 104 / 117 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.64 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.6%
X 3.23 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.75 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 36.9%
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 63.2%
12 1.33 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 74.4%
1X 1.48 market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.52 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.35 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · value +8.7% · model 61.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.97 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.76 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.50 40.0% 2.88 34.7% 2.75 36.4% 2.75 36.4% 2.90 34.5% 2.80 35.7%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.32 30.1% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3%
2.78 36.0% 2.72 36.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.62 38.2% 2.70 37.0% 2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.95 51.3% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.99 50.3% 2.07 48.3%
yes 1.75 57.1% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.47 68.0% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.45 69.0% 1.40 71.4%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.42 70.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 — 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.25 — 1.18 84.8%
Over 1.5 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3%
Over 1.75 — 1.40 71.4%
Over 2.0 — 1.52 65.8%
Over 2.25 — 1.88 53.2%
Over 2.5 2.00 50.0% —
Over 3.5 3.55 28.2% —
Over 4.5 7.00 14.3% —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% —
Under 1.5 3.20 31.3% —
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6% —
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1% —
Under 4.5 1.09 91.7% —
Match center
Nottingham Forest
Founded 1865
Aston Villa
Founded 1874
Match center
Nottingham Forest
CH C. Hudson-Odoi Injury
TA T. Awoniyi Inactive
Aston Villa
BK B. Kamara Knee Injury
RB R. Barkley Inactive
Kallum Khadson-Odoi Murillo Dzhon Viktor Nikolo Savona Villi Boli Travmirovannye Bubakar Kamara Alisson
Nottingham Forest Founded: 1865
Aston Villa Founded: 1874
Match center
Nottingham Forest
W D L L W
16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 1:0 FC PortoFC Porto
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 1:1 FC PortoFC Porto
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 0:1 MidtyullannMidtyullann
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 1:2 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 3:0 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Aston Villa
W W W W W
16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 4:0 BolognaBologna
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 3:1 BolognaBologna
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 2:0 LilleLille
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 1:0 LilleLille
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 3:2 Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.6 Scored
0.6 Conceded
15 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Nottingham Forest
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest Team comparison Aston Villa
14 Games 12
7 Wins 11
3 Draws 0
4 Losses 1
23 Scored 24
12 Conceded 7
24 Points 33
109.67 Attacks 64
58 Dangerous attacks 33.25
0 Big chances 0
18.14 Shots on goal 8.25
6.29 Shots on target 5
ngem Forest semi-final. 2 match Goly Kris Vud 1:0 71' Nakazaniya Yuri Tilemans 78'

Nottingem Forest Aston Villa 14 Games 12 7 Wins 11 3 Draws 0 4 Losses 1 23 Scored 24 12 Conceded 7 24 Points 33 109.67 Attacks 64 58 Dangerous attacks 33.25 0 Big chances 0 18.14 Shots on goal 8.25 6.29 Udary v stvor 5 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 5.86 Uglovye 4.58 1.5 Offsaydy 1 13.64 Foly 11.42 52.36 % vladeniya myachom 53.58 1.64 Warnings 1.67 0.07 Sendoffs 0 Sleduyuschiy match 07.05.2026 Europa League Aston Villa –:– Nottingem Forest semi-final. 2 match Goly Kris Vud 1:0 71' Nakazaniya Yuri Tilemans 78'