PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

Nottingham Forest - FC Porto

World Football
Stadium Siti Graund
Referee Danny Makkelie
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
1 : 0
Finished
FC Porto
FC Porto
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Nottingham Forest — 42%

1 · Nottingham Forest41.8%
X · draw25.9%
2 · FC Porto32.3%

Model estimate: win Nottingham Forest 41.8%, draw 25.9%, win FC Porto 32.3%. Model favourite — Nottingham Forest.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nottingham Forest - FC Porto April 16, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Nottingham Forest.

Strongest: Nottingham Forest - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.42 / X 3.10 / 2 3.16
  • 1X2 market: Nottingham Forest 39.3% / X 30.7% / FC Porto 30.1%
  • Glicko: Nottingham Forest 41.8% / X 25.9% / FC Porto 32.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 43.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 39.3%
X 30.7%
2 30.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 41.0%
Under 2.5 59.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/5
Confidence 41.5%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 16.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Siti Graund (Nottingem)
Referee Danny Makkelie

? ? ??? ? ??????§? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ? ??? ? ? ??° ? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ? ??? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ?????  ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????±? ? ? ??? ? ??????? ? ??? ? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ?????¦? ? ??? ? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ??????· SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Nottingham Forest 42%
💹 Market Nottingham Forest 3925%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Nottingham Forest - FC Porto

Nottingham Forest: Win 2.45 Nottingham Forest: Draw 3.10 FC Porto Win: 3.10 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.30 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.62 Individualnyy total golov Nottingham Forest bolshe 1.5: 2.62 Individualnyy total golov Nottingham Forest menshe 1.5: 1.44 In…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:0
Events 17
Statistics 26
Lineups 27
min Event Player Team
7' 7' Card upgrade | J. Bednarek L. Négo FC Porto
8' 8' Red Card | J. Bednarek L. Négo FC Porto
12' 12' Normal Goal | M. Gibbs-White | assist/sub out: N. Williams William Zhang Nottingham Forest
16' 16' Substitution 1 | C. Wood | assist/sub out: Igor Jesus Andre Nemeth Nottingham Forest
32' 32' Yellow Card | T. Moffi FC Porto
36' 36' Yellow Card | A. Costa FC Porto
40' 40' Yellow Card | O. Hutchinson Nottingham Forest
46' 46' Substitution 4 | O. Hutchinson | assist/sub out: C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest
Metric Nottingham Forest FC Porto SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.17 0.97 final
Zablokirovannye udary 6 3 final
Shots off target 9 6 final
Shots on target 5 1 final
Udary vsego 20 10 final
Fouls soversheno 16 11 final
Red cards 0 1 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final
Nottingham Forest #3 N. Williams, #5 Murillo, #6 I. Sangaré, #10 Morgan Gibbs-White, #11 C. Wood, #14 D. Ndoye, #16 Nicolás Domínguez, #21 Omari Hutchinson, #23 Jair, #27 Stefan Ortega, #34 O. Aina
FC Porto #13 P. Rosario, #29 Terem Moffi, #42 S. Fofana
Player Team Metric SStats
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest football.player.assists 0
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Dribling popytki 1
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Edinoborstva vyigrano 1
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Fouls soversheno 1
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Seyvy 0
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest football.player.minutes_played 27
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Tochnost pasov % 4
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Klyuchevye pasy 21
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Reyting (staryy) 7.5
C. Hudson-Odoi Nottingham Forest Shots on target 1
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Nottingham Forest 39.5% 41.8% market and model agree
Draw 30.9% 25.9% draw risk
FC Porto 29.5% 32.3%
xG - 1.43 : 1.22
Total 2.5 Over 43.9% - Under 56.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.8% / 25.9% / 32.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,707 / 1,705 Nottingham Forest / FC Porto
RD 108 / 116 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.16 market consensus · no value · model 32.3%
X 3.10 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.42 market consensus · no value · model 41.8%
Double chance
X2 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 58.3%
12 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 74.1%
1X 1.35 market consensus · no value · model 67.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.23 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.02 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.83 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.32 market consensus · no value · model 43.9%
Under 2.5 1.61 market consensus · no value · model 56.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.81 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.36 42.4% 2.29 43.7% 2.54 39.4% 2.40 41.7% 2.45 40.8% 2.50 40.0%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8%
3.15 31.8% 3.35 29.9% 3.23 31.0% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.78 56.2% 1.78 56.2%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.93 51.8% 1.93 51.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.58 63.3% 1.60 62.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.33 75.2%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.05 95.2%
Over 0.75 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.0 — — 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.25 — — 1.26 79.4%
Over 1.5 1.42 70.4% — 1.41 70.9%
Over 1.75 — — 1.53 65.4%
Over 2.25 — 2.04 49.0% —
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 3.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 0.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.86 53.8% —
Under 2.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3% — —
Match center
Nottingham Forest
Founded 1865
FC Porto
Founded 1893
Match center
Nottingham Forest
D L L W W
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 1:1 FC PortoFC Porto
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 0:1 MidtyullannMidtyullann
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 1:2 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 3:0 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingham Forest 4:0 FerentsvaroshFerentsvarosh
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
FC Porto
D W W W D
09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 1:1 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 2:0 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
12.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 2:1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 3:1 RangersRangers
22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
FC Porto 1:1 Plzen
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNottingham Forest - FC Porto

Nottingham Forest
2 matches total
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (50%)
FC Porto: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Nottingem Forest 2:0 (23.10 19:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 09.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (09.04 19:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingem Forest
1:1
FC Porto
23.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Nottingem Forest
2:0
FC Porto
Match center
? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ??? ????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????±? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????»? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????° ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????µ? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ????? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ??? ? ????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ?? ? ? ??????? ?????????? ? ??? ? ? ? ???? ? ? ??? ??? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ??-? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??? ??????¦? ? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ???????? ??????°.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.