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UEFA Europa League World

Final 20.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

20.05.2026 19:00 UTC Final

Finished

UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg - Aston Villa

World Football

SC Freiburg

0 : 3

Finished

Aston Villa

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SC Freiburg - Aston Villa May 20, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.

Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.40 / X 3.85 / 2 1.64
1X2 market: SC Freiburg 17.6% / X 24.6% / Aston Villa 57.8%
Total 2.5: over probability 51.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%

1 17.6%

X 24.6%

2 57.8%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 48.8%

Under 2.5 51.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: Aston Villa

Main outcome Aston Villa

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 56.5%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Tyuprash (Stambul, Turkey), 37 324 zritelya (86% pri vmestimosti 43 500)

Referee Fransua Letekse

Start 20.05.2026 19:00 UTC

Match center

SC Freiburg - Aston Villa

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Frayburg - Aston Villa, 20 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Europa League UEFA 2025/2026, Final. Frayburg - Aston Villa, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 0:3

Events 17

Statistics 22

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

5' 5' Yellow Card | P. Treu P. Treu SC Freiburg

15' 15' Yellow Card | E. Buendia E. Buendía Aston Villa

21' 21' Yellow Card | M. Cash M. Cash Aston Villa

41' 41' Normal Goal | Y. Tielemans Y. Tielemans Aston Villa

45+3' 45+3' Normal Goal | E. Buendia | assist/sub out: J. McGinn E. Buendía Aston Villa

58' 58' Normal Goal | M. Rogers | assist/sub out: E. Buendia M. Rogers Aston Villa

61' 61' Substitution 1 | P. Lienhart | assist/sub out: M. Rosenfelder Philipp Lienhart SC Freiburg

61' 61' Substitution 2 | N. Hofler | assist/sub out: L. Holer N. Hofler SC Freiburg

Metric SC Freiburg Aston Villa SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 0.27 2.3 final

Zablokirovannye udary 0 5 final

Shots off target 2 6 final

Shots on target 2 6 final

Udary vsego 4 17 final

Fouls soversheno 15 15 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 3 final

Offsides 5 2 final

SC Freiburg #1 N. Atubolu, #27 N. Hofler, #29 P. Treu, #31 Igor Matanović, #32 V. Grifo, #3 Philipp Lienhart, #8 M. Eggestein, #44 J. Manzambi, #19 J. Beste, #28 M. Ginter, #17 L. Kubler

Aston Villa #8 Y. Tielemans, #10 E. Buendía, #11 O. Watkins, #12 L. Digne, #23 E. Martinez, #3 Victor Lindelöf, #14 Pau Torres, #27 M. Rogers, #4 E. Konsa, #7 J. McGinn, #2 M. Cash

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Onana Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 24

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 2

E. Buendía Aston Villa football.player.assists 1

E. Buendía Aston Villa football.player.goals 1

E. Buendía Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 81

E. Konsa Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

E. Martinez Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

I. Maatsen Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 9

J. McGinn Aston Villa football.player.assists 1

J. McGinn Aston Villa football.player.minutes_played 90

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.04 Fonbet · line only

X 3.85 market consensus · line only

1 5.40 market consensus · line only

Double chance

12 1.14 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.01 Fonbet · line only

X2 1.15 market consensus · line only

Handicap

2 +1 1.40 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1 +1 2.90 Fonbet · line only

1 0 3.45 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.32 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 3.40 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.35 Fonbet · line only

Yes 3.25 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	5.50 18.2%	5.69 17.6%	5.00 20.0%	5.50 18.2%	5.80 17.2%	5.50 18.2%
X	3.80 26.3%	4.13 24.2%	3.80 26.3%	3.90 25.6%	3.95 25.3%	3.90 25.6%
	1.60 62.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.62 61.7%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Superbet
no	1.83 54.6%	1.77 56.5%	1.91 52.4%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%	1.83 54.6%
yes	1.85 54.1%	1.96 51.0%	1.85 54.1%	1.95 51.3%	1.90 52.6%	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	2.00 50.0%	1.95 51.3%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.14 87.7%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.14 87.7%	1.17 85.5%	1.11 90.1%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.20 83.3%
home_draw	2.20 45.5%	2.34 42.7%	2.15 46.5%	2.25 44.4%	2.30 43.5%	2.25 44.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.05 95.2%	1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25	—	1.16 86.2%
Over 1.5	1.30 76.9%	1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75	—	1.36 73.5%
Over 2.0	—	1.46 68.5%
Over 2.25	—	1.79 55.9%
Over 2.5	1.93 51.8%	—
Over 3.5	3.35 29.9%	—
Over 4.5	6.50 15.4%	—
Under 0.5	9.00 11.1%	—
Under 1.5	3.40 29.4%	—
Under 2.5	1.85 54.1%	—
Under 3.5	1.30 76.9%	—
Under 4.5	1.10 90.9%	—

Match center

SC Freiburg

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Aston Villa

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Yuito Sudzuki Daniel-Kofi Kiere Travmirovannye Alisson Bubakar Kamara

Match center

SC Freiburg

W L W W W

07.05 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 3:1 Braga

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 1:2 Braga

16.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 3:1 Selta

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 3:0 Selta

19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 5:1 Genk

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

3.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

12 Points

Aston Villa

W L W W W

07.05 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 4:0 Nottingem Forest

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 0:1 Nottingem Forest

16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 4:0 Bologna

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 3:1 Bologna

19.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Aston Villa 2:0 Lille

4 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

2.6 Scored

0.4 Conceded

12 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySC Freiburg - Aston Villa

SC Freiburg

0 matches total

Aston Villa

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 SC Freiburg

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Aston Villa

14 Games 14

9 Wins 12

2 Draws 0

3 Losses 2

25 Scored 28

10 Conceded 8

29 Points 36

87.83 Attacks 69.17

42.83 Dangerous attacks 37.5

0 Big chances 0

12 Shots on goal 10.17

5.43 Shots on target 5.29

07 Sendoffs 0 Goly Yuri Tilemans Morgan Rodzhers 0:1 41' Emiliano Buendiya Dzhon Makginn 0:2 45+3' Morgan Rodzhers Emiliano Buendiya 0:3 58' Nakazaniya Filipp Troy 5' Emiliano Buendiya 15' Metti Kesh 21' Dzhon Makginn 84'

Frayburg Aston Villa 14 Games 14 9 Wins 12 2 Draws 0 3 Losses 2 25 Scored 28 10 Conceded 8 29 Points 36 87.83 Attacks 69.17 42.83 Dangerous attacks 37.5 0 Big chances 0 12 Shots on goal 10.17 5.43 Udary v stvor 5.29 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.43 Uglovye 4.86 1.14 Offsaydy 0.93 11.86 Foly 11.57 50.14 % vladeniya myachom 53.21 1.57 Warnings 1.5 0.07 Sendoffs 0 Goly Yuri Tilemans Morgan Rodzhers 0:1 41' Emiliano Buendiya Dzhon Makginn 0:2 45+3' Morgan Rodzhers Emiliano Buendiya 0:3 58' Nakazaniya Filipp Troy 5' Emiliano Buendiya 15' Metti Kesh 21' Dzhon Makginn 84'