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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction
09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg - Celta Vigo

World Football
Stadium Europe-park Shtadion
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
3 : 0
Finished
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 SC Freiburg — 42%

1 · SC Freiburg42.1%
X · draw25.2%
2 · Celta Vigo32.6%

Model estimate: win SC Freiburg 42.1%, draw 25.2%, win Celta Vigo 32.6%. Model favourite — SC Freiburg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SC Freiburg - Celta Vigo April 9, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Freiburg.

Strongest: SC Freiburg - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.24 / X 3.21 / 2 3.39
  • 1X2 market: SC Freiburg 42.4% / X 29.6% / Celta Vigo 28.1%
  • Glicko: SC Freiburg 42.1% / X 25.2% / Celta Vigo 32.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 36.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 42.4%
X 29.6%
2 28.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 42.9%
Under 2.5 57.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 42.3%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 09.04.2026 19:00 UTC
Stadium Europe-park Shtadion (Frayburg)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model SC Freiburg 42%
💹 Market SC Freiburg 4235%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

SC Freiburg - Celta Vigo

SC Freiburg: Win 2.20 SC Freiburg: Draw 3.20 Celta Vigo Win: 3.50 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.67 Individualnyy total golov SC Freiburg bolshe 1.5: 2.25 Individualnyy total golov SC Freiburg menshe 1.5: 1.57 Individualnyy total gol…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:0
Events 12
Statistics 24
Lineups 45
min Event Player Team
10' 10' Normal Goal | Vincenzo Grifo | assist/sub out: J. Manzambi SC Freiburg
32' 32' Normal Goal | Jan-Niklas Beste SC Freiburg
46' 46' Substitution 1 | W. Swedberg | assist/sub out: J. El Abdellaoui Celta Vigo
46' 46' Substitution 2 | J. Rodriguez | assist/sub out: F. Lopez Celta Vigo
61' 61' Substitution 7 | H. Sotelo | assist/sub out: M. Vecino Celta Vigo
73' 73' Substitution 9 | B. Iglesias | assist/sub out: I. Aspas Celta Vigo
73' 73' Substitution 10 | F. Jutgla | assist/sub out: P. Duran Celta Vigo
74' 74' Substitution 5 | Y. Suzuki | assist/sub out: Lucas Höler SC Freiburg
Metric SC Freiburg Celta Vigo SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.59 0.53 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final
Shots off target 2 3 final
Shots on target 7 0 final
Udary vsego 13 4 final
Fouls soversheno 9 12 final
Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final
Offsides 1 1 final
SC Freiburg #1 N. Atubolu, #3 Philipp Lienhart, #8 M. Eggestein, #14 Yuito Suzuki, #19 J. Beste, #28 M. Ginter, #29 P. Treu, #31 Igor Matanović, #32 V. Grifo, #33 J. Makengo, #44 J. Manzambi
Celta Vigo #3 Óscar Mingueza, #4 J. Aidoo, #5 Sergio Carreira, #6 I. Moriba, #7 B. Iglesias, #9 Ferran Jutglà, #13 I. Radu, #19 W. Swedberg, #20 Marcos Alonso, #22 Hugo Sotelo, #32 Javi Rodríguez
Player Team Metric SStats
GЃlvaro NGєG±ez Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
AndrG©s AntaG±Gіn Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo football.player.assists 0
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo Dribling popytki 3
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo Edinoborstva vyigrano 10
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo Fouls soversheno 2
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo Seyvy 0
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo football.player.minutes_played 73
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo Klyuchevye pasy 18
B. Iglesias Celta Vigo Reyting (staryy) 6.2
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
SC Freiburg 42.3% 42.1% market and model agree
Draw 29.9% 25.2% draw risk
Celta Vigo 27.8% 32.6%
xG - 1.49 : 1.28
Total 2.5 Over 36.6% - Under 63.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.05
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.05

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.1% / 25.2% / 32.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,689 / 1,736 SC Freiburg / Celta Vigo
RD 124 / 115 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.39 market consensus · no value · model 32.6%
X 3.21 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.24 market consensus · no value · model 42.1%
Double chance
X2 1.64 market consensus · no value · model 57.9%
12 1.33 market consensus · no value · model 74.8%
1X 1.31 market consensus · no value · model 67.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.67 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.29 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.36 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.46 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 36.6%
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · value +5.9% · model 63.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.87 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.87 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.24 44.6% 2.28 43.9% 2.31 43.3% 2.20 45.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.20 45.5%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.32 30.1% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3%
3.15 31.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.57 28.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet Unibet
no 1.90 52.6% 2.00 50.0% 1.84 54.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.88 53.2% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.87 53.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
draw_away 1.62 61.7% 1.69 59.2% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.38 72.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.35 74.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.28 78.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.06 94.3% — 1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75 — — 1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0 — — 1.07 93.5%
Over 1.25 — — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5 1.35 74.1% — 1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.86 53.8% —
Over 2.5 2.10 47.6% — —
Over 3.5 3.75 26.7% — —
Over 4.5 7.50 13.3% — —
Under 0.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 1.5 3.10 32.3% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.04 49.0% —
Under 2.5 1.73 57.8% — —
Under 3.5 1.25 80.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.08 92.6% — —
Match center
SC Freiburg
Founded 1904
Celta Vigo
Founded 1923
Match center
SC Freiburg
DK D. Kyereh Lacking Match Fitness
PO P. Osterhage Knee Injury
Celta Vigo
CS C. Starfelt Injury
JR Javi Rueda Yellow Cards
SC Freiburg Founded: 1904
Celta Vigo Founded: 1923
Match center
SC Freiburg
W L L W W
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 5:1 GenkGenk
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 0:1 GenkGenk
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 0:1 LilleLille
22.01 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 1:0 Maccabi Tel AvivMaccabi Tel Aviv
11.12 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
SC Freiburg 1:0 Red Bull SalzburgRed Bull Salzburg
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
9 Points
Celta Vigo
W D W W D
19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 2:0 LionLion
12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 1:1 LionLion
26.02 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 1:0 PAOKPAOK
19.02 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 2:1 PAOKPAOK
29.01 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Celta Vigo 1:1 FK Crvena Zvezda
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySC Freiburg - Celta Vigo

SC Freiburg
0 matches total
Celta Vigo
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.