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UEFA Europa League World

semi-final. 2 match 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC Match prediction

07.05.2026 19:00 UTC semi-final. 2 match

Finished

UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg - SC Braga

World Football

Stadium Europe-park Shtadion

Referee D. Massa

SC Freiburg

3 : 1

Finished

SC Braga

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 SC Freiburg — 52%

1 · SC Freiburg52.2%

X · draw23.8%

2 · SC Braga24.0%

Model estimate: win SC Freiburg 52.2%, draw 23.8%, win SC Braga 24.0%. Model favourite — SC Freiburg.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction SC Freiburg - SC Braga May 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like SC Freiburg.

Strongest: SC Freiburg - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.74 / X 3.61 / 2 5.02
1X2 market: SC Freiburg 54.7% / X 26.3% / SC Braga 19.0%
Glicko: SC Freiburg 52.2% / X 23.8% / SC Braga 24.0%
Total 2.5: over probability 50.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%

1 54.7%

X 26.4%

2 19.0%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%

Over 2.5 44.0%

Under 2.5 56.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Glavnyy konsensus AI: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 59.2%

Total Over 2.5

Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Europe-Park (Frayburg-im-Braysgau, Germany), 33 700 zriteley (97% pri vmestimosti 34 700)

Referee Davide Massa (Imperiya)

Start 07.05.2026 19:00 UTC

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model SC Freiburg 52%

💹 Market SC Freiburg 5471%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

SC Freiburg - SC Braga

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Frayburg - Braga, 7 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Europa League UEFA 2025/2026, semi-final. 2 match. Frayburg - Braga, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 3:1

Events 15

Statistics 24

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

6' 6' Red Card | M. Dorgeles M. Dorgeles SC Braga

19' 19' Normal Goal SC Freiburg

41' 41' Normal Goal | J. Manzambi J. Manzambi SC Freiburg

62' 62' Yellow Card | Pau Victor Pau Victor SC Braga

65' 65' Substitution 6 | R. Zalazar | assist/sub out: Fran Navarro R. Zalazar SC Braga

65' 65' Substitution 7 | Vitor Carvalho | assist/sub out: Gabriel Moscardo Vitor Carvalho SC Braga

65' 65' Yellow Card | Jean-Baptiste Gorby Jean-Baptiste Gorby SC Braga

71' 71' Yellow Card | E. Tıknaz E. Tıknaz SC Braga

Metric SC Freiburg SC Braga SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.83 1.84 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 6 final

Shots off target 7 3 final

Shots on target 8 5 final

Udary vsego 19 14 final

Fouls soversheno 16 10 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 0 4 final

SC Freiburg #1 N. Atubolu, #27 N. Hofler, #29 P. Treu, #31 Igor Matanović, #32 V. Grifo, #3 Philipp Lienhart, #8 M. Eggestein, #44 J. Manzambi, #19 J. Beste, #28 M. Ginter, #17 L. Kubler

SC Braga #1 L. Horníček, #6 Vitor Carvalho, #10 R. Zalazar, #18 Pau Victor, #20 M. Dorgeles, #15 Paulo Oliveira, #29 Jean-Baptiste Gorby, #34 E. Tıknaz, #8 João Moutinho, #14 G. Lagerbielke, #2 Víctor Gómez

Player Team Metric SStats

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg football.player.assists 0

B. Ogbus SC Freiburg football.player.minutes_played 9

Igor Matanović SC Freiburg football.player.assists 0

Igor Matanović SC Freiburg football.player.minutes_played 90

J. Beste SC Freiburg football.player.assists 0

J. Beste SC Freiburg football.player.minutes_played 81

J. Makengo SC Freiburg football.player.assists 0

J. Makengo SC Freiburg football.player.minutes_played 10

J. Manzambi SC Freiburg football.player.assists 0

J. Manzambi SC Freiburg football.player.goals 1

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

SC Freiburg 54.5% 52.2% market and model agree

Draw 25.6% 23.8% draw risk

SC Braga 19.9% 24.0%

xG - 1.73 : 1.09

Total 2.5 Over 50.0% - Under 50.0%

Model check - - Difference 0.04

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 52.2% / 23.8% / 24.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,736 / 1,732 SC Freiburg / SC Braga

RD 108 / 97 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 5.08 market consensus · no value · model 24.0%

X 4.14 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 52.2%

Double chance

X2 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 47.8%

12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 76.2%

1X 1.17 market consensus · no value · model 76.0%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.14 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.58 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 4.50 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.16 market consensus · value +8.0% · model 50.0%

Under 2.5 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 50.0%

Both teams to score

No 1.76 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.69 59.2%	1.82 55.0%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.78 56.2%	1.70 58.8%
X	3.60 27.8%	3.74 26.7%	3.50 28.6%	3.75 26.7%	3.75 26.7%	3.60 27.8%
	5.00 20.0%	5.03 19.9%	5.00 20.0%	5.25 19.1%	5.20 19.2%	5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.77 56.5%	1.72 58.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.91 52.4%	1.75 57.1%	1.73 57.8%	1.73 57.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.79 55.9%
yes	1.95 51.3%	2.03 49.3%	2.10 47.6%	1.91 52.4%	2.02 49.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.00 50.0%	2.03 49.3%	1.94 51.6%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	2.10 47.6%	2.10 47.6%	2.05 48.8%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.00 50.0%
home_away	1.22 82.0%	1.32 75.8%	1.29 77.5%	1.25 80.0%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	1.17 85.5%	1.21 82.6%	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.20 83.3%	1.14 87.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.06 94.3%	1.03 97.1%
Over 0.75	—	1.05 95.2%
Over 1.0	—	1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25	—	1.23 81.3%
Over 1.5	1.35 74.1%	1.37 73.0%
Over 1.75	—	1.49 67.1%
Over 2.0	—	1.64 61.0%
Over 2.25	—	2.00 50.0%
Over 2.5	2.05 48.8%	—
Over 3.5	3.65 27.4%	—
Over 4.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 0.5	8.50 11.8%	—
Under 1.5	3.10 32.3%	—
Under 2.5	1.75 57.1%	—
Under 3.5	1.28 78.1%	—
Under 4.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

SC Freiburg

Founded 1904

SC Braga

Founded 1921

Match center

SC Freiburg

PO P. Osterhage Knee Injury

YS Y. Suzuki Injury

SC Braga

FG F. Grillitsch Injury

SN S. Niakate Achilles Tendon Injury

Patrik Osterkhage Yuito Sudzuki Maksimilian Rozenfelder Travmirovannye Adrian Leon Barishich Siku Nyakate Diegu Rodrigesh Brayt Arri-Mbi Florian Grillich

SC Freiburg Founded: 1904

SC Braga Founded: 1921

Match center

SC Freiburg

L W W W L

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 1:2 Braga

16.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 3:1 Selta

09.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 3:0 Selta

19.03 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 5:1 Genk

12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Freiburg 0:1 Genk

3 Wins

0 Draws

2 Losses

2.4 Scored

1.0 Conceded

9 Points

SC Braga

W W D W L

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Braga 2:1 Frayburg

16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Braga 4:2 Real Betis

08.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Braga 1:1 Real Betis

18.03 15:30 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Braga 4:0 Ferentsvarosh

12.03 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

SC Braga 0:2 Ferentsvarosh

3 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.2 Scored

1.2 Conceded

10 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySC Freiburg - SC Braga

SC Freiburg

1 matches total

SC Braga

SC Freiburg: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

SC Braga: 1 (100%)

Biggest win Braga 1:2 (30.04 19:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 3 goals (1:2, 30.04 19:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0

0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

30.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League

Frayburg

1:2

Braga

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 SC Freiburg

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 SC Braga

13 Games 19

8 Wins 13

2 Draws 4

3 Losses 2

22 Scored 36

9 Conceded 13

26 Points 43

88.6 Attacks 96.4

42 Dangerous attacks 51.4

0 Big chances 0

10.4 Shots on goal 8.6

5.23 Shots on target 4

eniya 1.79 0.08 Sendoffs 0.05 Goly Lukas Kyubler 1:0 19' Yokhan Manzambi Filipp Troy 2:0 41' Lukas Kyubler Vinchentso Grifo 3:0 72' Pau Viktor Gomes 3:1 79' Nakazaniya Mario Dorzheles 7' Pau Viktor 62' Zhan-Batist Gorbi 65' Demir Tyknaz 71' Gabri Martines 90+4'

Frayburg Braga 13 Games 19 8 Wins 13 2 Draws 4 3 Losses 2 22 Scored 36 9 Conceded 13 26 Points 43 88.6 Attacks 96.4 42 Dangerous attacks 51.4 0 Big chances 0 10.4 Shots on goal 8.6 5.23 Udary v stvor 4 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 4.46 Uglovye 4.63 1.15 Offsaydy 1.32 11.54 Foly 11.26 49.08 % vladeniya myachom 56.05 1.69 Warnings 1.79 0.08 Sendoffs 0.05 Goly Lukas Kyubler 1:0 19' Yokhan Manzambi Filipp Troy 2:0 41' Lukas Kyubler Vinchentso Grifo 3:0 72' Pau Viktor Gomes 3:1 79' Nakazaniya Mario Dorzheles 7' Pau Viktor 62' Zhan-Batist Gorbi 65' Demir Tyknaz 71' Gabri Martines 90+4'