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Uruguay. Premier League
Uruguay. Premier League
Promezhutochnyy turnir. Group A. 5 round 13.07.2026 20:00 UTC Match prediction
13.07.2026 20:00 UTC Promezhutochnyy turnir. Group A. 5 round
Finished

Uruguay. Premier League

Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting

Futbol
Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo
1 : 1
Finished
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting July 13, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Defensor Sporting.

Line favourite market consensus: Defensor Sporting. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.78 / X 2.93 / 2 2.57
  • 1X2 market: Cerro Largo 33.0% / X 31.3% / Defensor Sporting 35.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0%
1 33.0%
X 31.3%
2 35.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División - Apertura
League table
Cerro Largo
#1024 ptsGP 197-3-921:20
DWWLL
Defensor Sporting
#1123 ptsGP 195-8-615:16
DDLLL
Best price across 13 books
1 3.06 Pinnacle
X 3.05 Unibet
2 2.65 Dafabet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Cerro Largo
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 1.10 Conceded 0.90 xG 1.01 xGA 1.21
Defensor Sporting
W-D-L 2-4-4 Scored 0.80 Conceded 1.00 xG 1.15 xGA 1.10

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Cerro Largo
Rating 1523
Defensor Sporting
Rating 1528

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Cerro Largo 0 : 0 Defensor Sporting
12.97
X2.97
22.52

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:7/7 ready

Google AI updated13.07.2026 20:45 UTC
1 32%
X 38% ✓ favourite
2 30%
Score0:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X and Under 2.5
Per AI data H2H: 2-2
DeepSeek updated13.07.2026 20:46 UTC
1 50% ✓ favourite
X 30%
2 20%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double chance 1X
ChatGPT updated13.07.2026 20:50 UTC
1 38% ✓ favourite
X 34%
2 28%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5
Per AI data H2H: 2-1-2
Claude updated13.07.2026 20:56 UTC
1 35% ✓ favourite
X 32%
2 33%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Double chance 1X (Serro-Largo or draw); dop. tsennost — Under 2.5
Qwen updated13.07.2026 20:49 UTC
1 32%
X 34% ✓ favourite
2 34%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X (double chance)
Kimi updated13.07.2026 20:57 UTC
1 36% ✓ favourite
X 33%
2 31%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X (double chance)
GLM 5.2 updated13.07.2026 20:58 UTC
1 34%
X 40% ✓ favourite
2 26%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:1X
Per AI data H2H: 0-1

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 32% 38% 30% 0:0 Under 2.5 No 1X and Under 2.5
DeepSeek 50% 30% 20% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Double chance 1X
ChatGPT 38% 34% 28% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Under 2.5
Claude 35% 32% 33% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Double chance 1X (Serro-Largo or draw); dop. tsennost — Under 2.5
Qwen 32% 34% 34% 1:1 Under 2.5 No 1X (double chance)
Kimi 36% 33% 31% 1:0 Under 2.5 No 1X (double chance)
GLM 5.2 34% 40% 26% 1:1 Under 2.5 No 1X

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Match center
Start 13.07.2026 20:00 UTC
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Cerro Largo 37%
💹 Market Defensor Sporting 3566%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Serro-Largo - Defensor Sporting, 14 iyulya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Uruguay — Primera 2026, Promezhutochnyy turnir. Group A. 5 round. Serro-Largo - Defensor Sporting, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 1/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.56 market consensus · line only
X 1.04 Fonbet · line only
1 2.80 market consensus · line only
Double chance
12 9.00 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.01 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.70 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 0 2.08 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 9.50 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.30 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.80 35.7% 2.86 35.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.72 36.8% 2.70 37.0% 2.80 35.7%
X 2.98 33.6% 2.94 34.0% 3.00 33.3% 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5%
2.52 39.7% 2.64 37.9% 2.55 39.2% 2.60 38.5% 2.55 39.2% 2.55 39.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.30 43.5% 1.68 59.5%
yes 1.60 62.5% 2.07 48.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.34 74.6% 1.38 72.5% 9.00 11.1%
1x 1.45 69.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.01 99.0%
x2 1.32 75.8% 1.36 73.5% 1.01 99.0%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 6.50 15.4%
0_1 5.75 17.4%
0_2 9.50 10.5%
0_3 23.00 4.4%
0_4 61.00 1.6%
1_0 6.00 16.7%
1_1 5.00 20.0%
1_2 8.50 11.8%
1_3 19.00 5.3%
1_4 56.00 1.8%
2_0 11.00 9.1%
2_1 9.00 11.1%
2_2 13.00 7.7%
2_3 31.00 3.2%
2_4 76.00 1.3%
3_0 26.00 3.9%
3_1 21.00 4.8%
3_2 34.00 2.9%
Match center
Cerro Largo
D
08.06 20:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings
Cerro Largo 0:0 Liverpul MontevideoLiverpul Montevideo
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
0.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
1 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Cerro Largo
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo Team comparison Defensor Sporting
19 Games 19
7 Wins 5
3 Draws 8
9 Losses 6
21 Scored 15
20 Conceded 16
24 Points 23
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Shots on target 0
leniya 0.16 Goly Diego Daguerre Santiago Marcel 1:0 18' Alexander Machado Martin Rabunyal 1 28' Nakazaniya Martin Rabunyal 13' Lucas Correa 39' Santiago Franca 61' Alexis Piegas 70' Statistika Serro-Largo Defensor Sporting 3 Warnings 1 0 Sendoffs 0
name: 'commentsWidget',
params: {
appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'],
xid: 'match_1318384' } }); ; ; ; ; Uruguay — Primera Turnirnaya Standings

Serro-Largo Defensor Sporting 19 Games 19 7 Wins 5 3 Draws 8 9 Losses 6 21 Scored 15 20 Conceded 16 24 Points 23 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 2.84 Warnings 2.63 0 Sendoffs 0.16 Goly Diego Daguerre Santiago Marcel 1:0 18' Alexander Machado Martin Rabunyal 1 28' Nakazaniya Martin Rabunyal 13' Lucas Correa 39' Santiago Franca 61' Alexis Piegas 70' Statistika Serro-Largo Defensor Sporting 3 Warnings 1 0 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 53% 34% 13% Double chance 44% 32% 24% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1318384' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Uruguay — Primera Turnirnaya Standings