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Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 7-y Round 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 7-y Round

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Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Defensor Sporting - Cerro

Football

Stadium Estadio Luis Franzini

Defensor Sporting

- : -

Not started

Cerro

Defensor Sporting go head-to-head with Cerro on August 3, 2026 in the Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings.

The market favourite is Defensor Sporting at roughly 54%. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Defensor Sporting — 53%

Pure model vs market (1 · Defensor Sporting): model 29% · market 54% Δ −25 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Defensor Sporting53.4%

X · draw26.7%

2 · Cerro19.9%

Model estimate: win Defensor Sporting 53.4%, draw 26.7%, win Cerro 19.9%. Model favourite — Defensor Sporting.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Defensor Sporting (odds1.66) Score 1:0 confidence 50%

• Model backs Defensor Sporting: probability 50% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.66)
• no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Defensor Sporting - Cerro August 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Defensor Sporting.

Line favourite market consensus: Defensor Sporting. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.71 / X 3.33 / 2 4.90
1X2 market: Defensor Sporting 53.6% / X 27.6% / Cerro 18.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9%

1 53.7%

X 27.6%

2 18.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División - Apertura

League table

Defensor Sporting

#1124 ptsGP 215-9-717:19

Cerro

#1519 ptsGP 215-4-1213:32

Best price across 11 books

1 1.86 Dafabet

X 3.65 Pinnacle

2 5.27 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Defensor Sporting

W-D-L 1-5-4 Scored 0.80 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.13 xGA 1.14

Cerro

W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.69 xG 0.84 xGA 1.42

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Defensor Sporting

Rating 1514 xG 1.52 Win 53%

Cerro

Rating 1426 xG 0.85 Win 21%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Defensor Sporting 1 : 1 Cerro

11.64

X3.38

25.18

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center

Stadium Estadio Luis Franzini

Start 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC

Market 1 53.7% @ 1.71 / X 27.6% @ 3.33 / 2 18.7% @ 4.90

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Defensor Sporting 53%

💹 Market Defensor Sporting 5363%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Defensor Sporting - Cerro

football, Defensor Sporting - Serro, 4 avgusta 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matcha. Vo skolko nachalo matcha Defensor Sporting - Serro, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Uruguay — Primera 2026, Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 7-y Round.

Form 3/3 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Overview

More needed

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Defensor Sporting 54.9% 53.4% market and model agree

Draw 27.0% 26.7% draw risk

Cerro 18.1% 19.9%

xG - 1.52 : 0.85

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 53.4% / 26.7% / 19.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,274 / 1,590 Defensor Sporting / Serro

RD 267 / 226 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 741-1,807 / 1,139-2,041 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.93 market consensus · no value · model 19.9%

X 3.35 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 53.4%

Double chance

12 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 73.3%

1X 1.13 market consensus · no value · model 80.1%

X2 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 46.6%

Handicap

2 +1 1.55 market consensus · line only

2 0 3.70 market consensus · line only

1 -1 2.31 market consensus · line only

1 0 1.24 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.37 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.57 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.26 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	Dafabet
	1.78 56.2%	1.64 61.0%	1.62 61.7%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.86 53.8%
X	3.20 31.3%	3.38 29.6%	3.25 30.8%	3.20 31.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%
	4.65 21.5%	5.18 19.3%	5.25 19.1%	5.00 20.0%	4.75 21.1%	4.70 21.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.57 63.7%
yes	2.26 44.3%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.25 80.0%	1.26 79.4%
1x	1.12 89.3%	1.13 88.5%
x2	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%

Exact Score

Outcome	10Bet
0_0	6.50 15.4%
0_1	8.50 11.8%
0_2	19.00 5.3%
0_3	56.00 1.8%
1_0	4.50 22.2%
1_1	5.50 18.2%
1_2	13.00 7.7%
1_3	41.00 2.4%
2_0	6.25 16.0%
2_1	7.00 14.3%
2_2	17.00 5.9%
2_3	51.00 2.0%
3_0	12.00 8.3%
3_1	13.00 7.7%
3_2	31.00 3.2%
3_3	76.00 1.3%
4_0	29.00 3.5%
4_1	34.00 2.9%

Match center

Defensor Sporting

D D D

26.07.2026 Championat

Defensor Sporting 26.07.2026 Uruguay — Primera Defensor Sporting 1 : 2 Liverpul Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 6-y Round

14.07.2026 Championat

Defensor Sporting 14.07.2026 Uruguay — Primera Serro-Largo 1 Defensor Sporting Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 5-y Round

08.06.2026 Championat

Defensor Sporting 08.06.2026 Uruguay — Primera Defensor Sporting 1 Boston River Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 4-y Round

0 Wins

0 Draws

0 Losses

— Scored

— Conceded

0 Points

Cerro

W W L

26.07 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Cerro 1:0 Rasing Montevideo

12.07 13:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Cerro 2:1 Liverpul Montevideo

07.06 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Cerro 0:1 Penyarol

2 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.7 Conceded

6 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDefensor Sporting - Cerro

Defensor Sporting

0 matches total

Cerro

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Defensor Sporting

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Cerro

21 Games 21

5 Wins 5

9 Draws 4

7 Losses 12

17 Scored 13

19 Conceded 32

24 Points 19

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Udary v stvor 0

21 Games 21

5 Wins 5

9 Draws 4

7 Losses 12

17 Scored 13

19 Conceded 32

Defensor Sporting Serro 21 Games 21 5 Wins 5 9 Draws 4 7 Losses 12 17 Scored 13 19 Conceded 32 24 Points 19 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 2.48 Warnings 3.76 0.14 Sendoffs 0.29 Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 40% 20% 40% Double chance 30% 40% 30% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1320886' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Uruguay — Primera Turnirnaya Standings