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Uruguay. Premier League

31.07.2026 16:00 UTC

Not started

Uruguay. Premier League

Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras

Football

Deportivo Maldonado

- : -

Not started

Juventud Las Piedras

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Deportivo Maldonado — 53%

Pure model vs market (1 · Deportivo Maldonado): model 58% · market 52% Δ +6 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Deportivo Maldonado52.8%

X · draw24.7%

2 · Juventud Las Piedras22.5%

Model estimate: win Deportivo Maldonado 52.8%, draw 24.7%, win Juventud Las Piedras 22.5%. Model favourite — Deportivo Maldonado.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Deportivo Maldonado (odds1.76) Score 1:0 confidence 50%

• Model backs Maldonado: probability 50% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.76)
• no edge over the line (-7 pp) — informational only
• Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras July 31, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Deportivo Maldonado. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.79 / X 3.70 / 2 4.10

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.3%

1 52.1%

X 25.2%

2 22.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División - Apertura

League table

Deportivo Maldonado

#140 ptsGP 2112-4-536:22

LDWWD

Juventud Las Piedras

#1222 ptsGP 216-4-1125:33

WLDLL

Best price across 11 books

1 1.94 Dafabet

X 3.51 Pinnacle

2 4.16 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Deportivo Maldonado

W-D-L 5-3-2 Scored 1.70 Conceded 1.00 xG 1.35 xGA 1.06

Juventud Las Piedras

W-D-L 4-3-3 Scored 1.50 Conceded 1.60 xG 1.11 xGA 1.32

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Deportivo Maldonado

Rating 1617 xG 1.57 Win 50%

Juventud Las Piedras

Rating 1479 xG 1.03 Win 25%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center

Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC

Match center

Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras

Form 4/5 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Overview

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Movement Line history

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Deportivo Maldonado 52.5% 52.8% market and model agree

Draw 25.0% 24.7% draw risk

Juventud Las Piedras 22.5% 22.5%

xG - 1.57 : 1.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 52.8% / 24.7% / 22.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,588 / 1,319 Deportivo Maldonado / Juventud Las Piedras

RD 221 / 204 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,145-2,030 / 911-1,727 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.09 market consensus · no value · model 22.5%

X 3.68 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.76 market consensus · no value · model 52.8%

Double chance

12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 75.3%

1X 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 77.5%

X2 1.92 market consensus · no value · model 47.2%

Handicap

2 +1 1.49 market consensus · line only

2 0 3.10 market consensus · line only

1 -1 2.43 market consensus · line only

1 0 1.32 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.96 market consensus · line only

Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.85 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Leon
no	1.85 54.1%
yes	1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
12	1.20 83.3%	1.23 81.3%
1x	1.17 85.5%	1.19 84.0%
x2	1.89 52.9%	1.95 51.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.42 41.3%
X	2.20 45.5%
	4.93 20.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.86 53.8%
Under 1	1.87 53.5%

Match center

Deportivo Maldonado

L D W W

18.07 13:30 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Deportivo Maldonado 0:1 Progreso

10.07 20:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Deportivo Maldonado 1:1 Albion

06.06 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Deportivo Maldonado 4:2 Montevideo Siti

31.05 19:30 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Deportivo Maldonado 3:0 Nasonal

2 Wins

1 Draws

1 Losses

2.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

7 Points

Juventud Las Piedras

W L D L L

17.07 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Juventud Las Piedras 1:0 Albion

11.07 11:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Juventud Las Piedras 1:3 Montevideo Siti

05.07 15:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Juventud Las Piedras 1:1 Danubio

06.06 19:30 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Juventud Las Piedras 1:2 Nasonal

31.05 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Juventud Las Piedras 2:5 Montevideo Uonderers

1 Wins

1 Draws

3 Losses

1.2 Scored

2.2 Conceded

4 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyDeportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras

Deportivo Maldonado

0 matches total

Juventud Las Piedras

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras

AI match prediction Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras July 31, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Statistics and model

Buy the full AI analysis

Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud Las Piedras

What data is collected and where it is shown

Match markets

Both teams to score

Double chance

First Half Winner

Goals Over/Under First Half

Match history