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31.07.2026 19:30 UTC
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31.07.2026 19:30 UTC
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Uruguay. Premier League
Penyarol - Cerro Largo
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Cerro Largo — 54%
Pure model vs market (2 · Cerro Largo): model 35% · market 15% Δ +20 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Penyarol 25.7%, draw 20.3%, win Cerro Largo 54.0%. Model favourite — Cerro Largo.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Cerro Largo (odds1.85)
Score 1:2
confidence 54%
- • Model backs Serro-Largo: probability 54% vs 54% on the line (odds 1.85)
- • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:2.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Penyarol - Cerro Largo July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Penyarol. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.56 / X 3.90 / 2 6.30
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.6%
1
60.7%
X
24.3%
2
15.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Primera División - AperturaLeague table
Penyarol
WDWLW
Cerro Largo
DDWWL
Best price
across 8 books
1
1.60
Unibet
X
4.09
Pinnacle
2
6.81
Pinnacle
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Penyarol
W-D-L 5-3-2
Scored 1.50
Conceded 0.90
xG 1.60
xGA 0.82
Cerro Largo
W-D-L 3-3-4
Scored 1.00
Conceded 0.80
xG 1.02
xGA 1.20
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Penyarol
Rating 1618
xG 1.69
Win 58%
Cerro Largo
Rating 1521
xG 0.81
Win 18%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Penyarol - Cerro Largo
Form
4/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Form
Match
Participants
More needed
Market
fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line
fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Penyarol
-
25.7%
Draw
-
20.3%
draw risk
Cerro Largo
-
54.0%
model pick
xG
-
1.69 : 0.81
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
25.7% / 20.3% / 54.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,592 / 1,632
Penyarol / Cerro Largo
RD
210 / 208
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,172-2,013 / 1,216-2,047
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.10
market consensus · weak value +229.6% · model 54.0%
X
3.86
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.51
market consensus · no value · model 25.7%
Double chance
12
1.20
market consensus · no value · model 79.7%
1X
1.07
market consensus · no value · model 46.0%
X2
2.37
market consensus · weak value +76.1% · model 74.3%
Handicap
2 +1
1.79
market consensus · line only
1 -1
1.91
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.01
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.74
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.71
market consensus · line only
Yes
2.02
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.71 58.5% |
| yes | 2.02 49.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.18 84.8% | 1.21 82.6% |
| 1x | 1.06 94.3% | 1.08 92.6% |
| x2 | 2.33 42.9% | 2.40 41.7% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| X | 2.24 44.6% |
| 6.30 15.9% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.94 51.6% |
| Under 1 | 1.80 55.6% |
Match center
Penyarol
W
D
W
L
Penyarol
3:0
Boston River
Boston River
Penyarol
1:1
Rasing Montevideo
Rasing Montevideo
Penyarol
1:0
Serro
Serro
Penyarol
0:1
Sentral Espanol
Sentral Espanol
2
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
1.3
Scored
0.5
Conceded
7
Points
Cerro Largo
W
D
D
Cerro Largo
1:0
Sentral Espanol
Sentral Espanol
Cerro Largo
1:1
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
Cerro Largo
0:0
Liverpul Montevideo
Liverpul Montevideo
1
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
0.7
Scored
0.3
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyPenyarol - Cerro Largo
Penyarol
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Penyarol - Cerro Largo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form