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29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
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29.07.2026 13:00 UTC
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Uruguay. Premier League
Racing Montevideo - Boston River
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Racing Montevideo — 57%
Pure model vs market (1 · Racing Montevideo): model 36% · market 41% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Racing Montevideo 56.7%, draw 19.7%, win Boston River 23.6%. Model favourite — Racing Montevideo.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Racing Montevideo (odds2.20)
Score 2:1
confidence 57%
- • Model backs Rasing Montevideo: probability 57% vs 45% on the line (odds 2.20)
- • edge over the line +11 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Racing Montevideo - Boston River July 29, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Racing Montevideo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.20 / X 4.16 / 2 2.34
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 12.2%
1
40.5%
X
21.4%
2
38.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Primera División - AperturaLeague table
Racing Montevideo
DDDDW
Boston River
LDDLL
Best price
across 10 books
1
1.91
Unibet
X
3.45
Dafabet
2
4.92
Pinnacle
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Racing Montevideo
W-D-L 3-6-1
Scored 0.80
Conceded 0.70
xG 1.26
xGA 0.92
Boston River
W-D-L 3-2-5
Scored 0.99
Conceded 1.60
xG 1.08
xGA 1.30
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Racing Montevideo
Rating 1615
xG 1.46
Win 50%
Boston River
Rating 1461
xG 0.90
Win 23%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Racing Montevideo - Boston River
Form
3/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Overview
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Racing Montevideo
40.5%
56.7%
market and model agree
Draw
21.4%
19.7%
draw risk
Boston River
38.1%
23.6%
xG
-
1.46 : 0.90
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
56.7% / 19.7% / 23.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,464 / 1,612
Racing Montevideo / Boston River
RD
219 / 208
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,027-1,901 / 1,197-2,028
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.34
market consensus · no value · model 23.6%
X
4.16
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.20
market consensus · value +24.7% · model 56.7%
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 1.78 56.2% |
| Over 4.5 | 2.01 49.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.86 53.8% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.66 60.2% |
Team To Score First
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.82 55.0% | |
| X | 61.00 1.6% |
| 1.85 54.1% |
Total
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 6.5 | 1.62 61.7% |
| Over 7.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| Over 8.5 | 1.95 51.3% |
| Under 6.5 | 2.08 48.1% |
| Under 7.5 | 1.82 55.0% |
| Under 8.5 | 1.70 58.8% |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.20 45.5% | |
| X | 4.16 24.0% |
| 2.34 42.7% |
Match center
Racing Montevideo
L
D
D
Racing Montevideo
0:1
Serro
Serro
Racing Montevideo
1:1
Penyarol
Penyarol
Racing Montevideo
1:1
Sentral Espanol
Sentral Espanol
0
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
0.7
Scored
1.0
Conceded
2
Points
Boston River
L
D
D
L
L
Boston River
0:3
Penyarol
Penyarol
Boston River
0:0
Sentral Espanol
Sentral Espanol
Boston River
1:1
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
Boston River
0:1
Liverpul Montevideo
Liverpul Montevideo
Boston River
0:2
San-Paulu
San-Paulu
0
Wins
2
Draws
3
Losses
0.2
Scored
1.4
Conceded
2
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyRacing Montevideo - Boston River
Racing Montevideo
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Racing Montevideo - Boston River breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form