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Uruguay. Premier League

Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 4 round 07.06.2026 16:00 UTC Match prediction

07.06.2026 16:00 UTC Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 4 round

Finished

Uruguay. Premier League

Serro - Penyarol

Football

Serro

0 : 1

Finished

Penyarol

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Serro - Penyarol June 7, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Penyarol.

Line favourite market consensus: Penyarol. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.03 / X 3.70 / 2 1.53
1X2 market: Serro 15.3% / X 24.9% / Penyarol 59.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.0%

1 15.2%

X 24.8%

2 60.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División - Apertura

League table

Serro

#1613 ptsGP 193-4-1210:31

Penyarol

#336 ptsGP 1911-3-528:18

Best price across 12 books

1 6.60 10Bet

X 4.00 Bet365

2 1.57 William Hill

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)

Serro

W-D-L 2-2-6 Scored 0.60 Conceded 1.90 xG 0.90 xGA 1.32

1 -4.20 X -4.10 2 +1.68 1 (DNB) -3.92

Penyarol

W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.30 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.65 xGA 0.79

1 -2.94 X -2.90 2 +11.50 1 (DNB) -2.53

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)

Serro

Rating 1382

Penyarol

Rating 1601

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

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Match center

Start 07.06.2026 16:00 UTC

Match center

Serro - Penyarol

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Serro - Penyarol, 7 iyunya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Uruguay — Primera 2026, Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 4 round. Serro - Penyarol, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 0/1 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 0 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.54 market consensus · line only

X 3.25 Fonbet · line only

1 1.40 Fonbet · line only

Double chance

12 1.30 Fonbet · line only

1X 1.02 Fonbet · line only

X2 2.70 Fonbet · line only

Handicap

2 -1 1.01 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 1.55 Fonbet · line only

2 0 1.14 Fonbet · line only

1 +1 2.25 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 2.45 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 2.20 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor
	6.25 16.0%	6.38 15.7%	5.50 18.2%	5.80 17.2%	6.00 16.7%	6.50 15.4%
X	3.65 27.4%	3.76 26.6%	4.00 25.0%	3.55 28.2%	3.60 27.8%	3.70 27.0%
	1.52 65.8%	1.55 64.5%	1.55 64.5%	1.55 64.5%	1.47 68.0%	1.53 65.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet
no	2.20 45.5%
yes	1.60 62.5%

Double chance

Outcome	Fonbet
12	1.30 76.9%
1x	1.02 98.0%
x2	2.70 37.0%

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	2.25 44.4%
	1.13 88.5%
	1.01 99.0%
	1.01 99.0%
	1.02 98.0%
	11.00 9.1%
	8.50 11.8%
	4.60 21.7%
	1.55 64.5%
	4.80 20.8%
	11.00 9.1%
	11.00 9.1%
	10.00 10.0%
	1.01 99.0%
	1.03 97.1%
	1.14 87.7%

Match center

Penyarol

01.06 21:00 UTC Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Penyarol 0:1 Sentral Espanol

0 Wins

0 Draws

1 Losses

0.0 Scored

1.0 Conceded

0 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySerro - Penyarol

Serro

0 matches total

Penyarol

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Serro

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Penyarol

18 Games 18

3 Wins 10

4 Draws 3

11 Losses 5

10 Scored 27

30 Conceded 18

13 Points 33

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Shots on target 0

aleniya 0.44 Goly Abel Hernandez Javier Cabrera 0:1 57' Nezabitye penalti Facundo Batista 20' Nakazaniya Matias Ocampo 31' Jairo Amaro 79' Statistika Serro Penyarol 2 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0

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Serro Penyarol 18 Games 18 3 Wins 10 4 Draws 3 11 Losses 5 10 Scored 27 30 Conceded 18 13 Points 33 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 3.94 Warnings 3.06 0.33 Sendoffs 0.44 Goly Abel Hernandez Javier Cabrera 0:1 57' Nezabitye penalti Facundo Batista 20' Nakazaniya Matias Ocampo 31' Jairo Amaro 79' Statistika Serro Penyarol 2 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 17% 0% 83% Double chance 9% 49% 42% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1314800' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Uruguay — Primera Turnirnaya Standings