Uruguay. Segunda Division
Oriental face Atenas San Carlos on August 9, 2026 in the Uruguay. Segunda Division.
Recent form (W-D-L): Oriental 2-1-2, Atenas San Carlos 2-1-2. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Oriental — 43%
Pure model vs market (1 · Oriental): model 40% · market 43% Δ −3 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Oriental 43.3%, draw 30.0%, win Atenas San Carlos 26.7%. Model favourite — Oriental.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.82 55.0% |
| yes | 1.89 52.9% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.34 74.6% |
| 1x | 1.22 82.0% | 1.26 79.4% |
| x2 | 1.60 62.5% | 1.65 60.6% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.80 35.7% | |
| X | 1.94 51.6% |
| 4.22 23.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 2.11 47.4% |
| Under 1 | 1.65 60.6% |
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Full head-to-head historyOriental - Atenas San Carlos
The Oriental - Atenas San Carlos breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
