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Uruguay. Segunda Division
Uruguay. Segunda Division
04.07.2026 18:00 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 18:00 UTC
Finished

Uruguay. Segunda Division

Plaza Colonia - La Luz

Futbol
Plaza Colonia
Plaza Colonia
1 : 0
Finished
La Luz
La Luz

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Plaza Colonia - La Luz July 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: draw. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 4.00 / X 1.48 / 2 6.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.2%
1 22.9%
X 61.9%
2 15.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Form and head-to-head • Segunda Division - Regular Season

Team stats

Plaza Colonia
DWLWWLDWLL
W 4 • D 2 • L 4 (10)
Goals average:1 : 0.9
10 place, 10 pts
La Luz
LDDDWDLLWD
W 2 • D 5 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:0.6 : 0.9
11 place, 10 pts
Head-to-head: 4 — Plaza Colonia 1, draws 2, La Luz 1 (goals 5:4)
  • Plaza Colonia — La Luz2024-09-25 2:0
  • La Luz — Plaza Colonia2024-06-09 2:1
  • La Luz — Plaza Colonia2023-10-22 1:1
  • Plaza Colonia — La Luz2023-03-17 1:1

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Plaza Colonia
Well rested
  • Rest days: 6
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
La Luz
No recent matches

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Statistics

Totals and BTTS trends

  Plaza Colonia La Luz
Over 2.5 — 40%
Average total — 2.4
Both teams to score (BTTS) — 40%
Matches counted — 5

% of matches with a total over 2.5, average total goals and % of matches where both teams scored — over each team recent matches. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 18:00 UTC
Match center

Plaza Colonia - La Luz

Form 1/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.00 Fonbet · line only
X 1.48 Fonbet · line only
1 4.00 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
12 2.40 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.11 Fonbet · line only
X2 1.20 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0 2.25 Fonbet · line only
1 0 1.58 Fonbet · line only
Total
Under 2.5 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.02 Fonbet · line only
Yes 9.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.02 98.0% 1.62 61.7%
yes 9.50 10.5% 2.16 46.3%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.35 74.1% 1.38 72.5% 2.40 41.7%
1x 1.19 84.0% 1.21 82.6% 1.11 90.1%
x2 1.64 61.0% 1.69 59.2% 1.20 83.3%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.80 35.7%
X 1.80 55.6%
5.10 19.6%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.59 62.9%
Under 0.5 2.22 45.1%
Match center
Plaza Colonia
W
14.06 19:00 UTC Uruguay: Segunda Standings
Plaza Colonia 2:1 Paysandu FCPaysandu FC
1 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
La Luz
L L D
14.06 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Segunda Standings
La Luz 0:4 Atenas
06.06 16:00 UTC Uruguay: Segunda Standings
La Luz 1:2 Paysandu FCPaysandu FC
31.05 10:30 UTC Uruguay: Segunda Standings
La Luz 1:1 Huracan FCHuracan FC
0 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.7 Scored
2.3 Conceded
1 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyPlaza Colonia - La Luz

Plaza Colonia
0 matches total
La Luz
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history