PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
USA. USL
USA. USL
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Not started

USA. USL

El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay

Football
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive
- : -
Not started
M
Monterey Bay

El Paso Locomotive take on Monterey Bay on August 4, 2026 in the USA. USL.

Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 El Paso Locomotive — 51%

Pure model vs market (1 · El Paso Locomotive): model 31% · market 54% Δ −23 pp model estimates below the market

1 · El Paso Locomotive50.8%
X · draw20.6%
2 · Monterey Bay28.7%

Model estimate: win El Paso Locomotive 50.8%, draw 20.6%, win Monterey Bay 28.7%. Model favourite — El Paso Locomotive.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1El Paso Locomotive (odds1.97) Score 2:1 confidence 51%
  • • Model backs El-Paso Lokomotiv: probability 51% vs 51% on the line (odds 1.97)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay August 4, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: El Paso Locomotive. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.70 / X 3.90 / 2 4.20

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 54.3%
X 23.7%
2 22.0%

Odds source: Betcity line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

USL Championship
League table
El Paso Locomotive
#1422 ptsGP 176-4-727:27
Monterey Bay
#2315 ptsGP 184-3-1119:30
Best price across 9 books
1 1.75 Unibet
X 4.03 Pinnacle
2 4.30 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
El Paso Locomotive
W-D-L 2-3-5 Scored 1.00 Conceded 1.49 xG 1.52 xGA 1.50
Monterey Bay
W-D-L 4-1-5 Scored 1.50 Conceded 1.50 xG 1.26 xGA 1.54

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
El Paso Locomotive
Rating 1463
Monterey Bay
Rating 1384

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

El Paso Locomotive 1 : 3 Monterey Bay
13.35
X3.28
22.01

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 04.08.2026 01:00 UTC
Market 1 54.3% @ 1.70 / X 23.7% @ 3.90 / 2 22.0% @ 4.20
Match center

El Paso Locomotive - Monterey Bay

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
El Paso Locomotive 54.3% 50.8% market and model agree
Draw 23.7% 20.6% draw risk
Monterey Bay 22.0% 28.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.8% / 20.6% / 28.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,433 / 1,699 El Paso Locomotive / Monterey Bay
RD 143 / 300 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,147-1,720 / 1,100-2,299 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.20 market consensus · no value · model 28.7%
X 3.90 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.70 market consensus · no value · model 50.8%
Double chance
12 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 79.4%
1X 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 71.3%
X2 2.03 market consensus · no value · model 49.2%
Handicap
2 0 3.20 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.05 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.21 82.6%
1x 1.19 84.0%
x2 2.03 49.3%

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
1.30 76.9%
3.20 31.3%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 2.5 1.69 59.2%
Under 2.5 2.05 48.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
1.70 58.8%
X 3.90 25.6%
4.20 23.8%
Match center
El Paso Locomotive
L W L W D
02.08 02:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
El Paso Locomotive 0:2 Oranzh Kaunti SK
25.07 23:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
El Paso Locomotive 2:0 Sporting JaxSporting Jax
18.07 22:30 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
El Paso Locomotive 0:1 TalsaTalsa
05.07 00:30 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
El Paso Locomotive 2:1 Las Vegas LaytsLas Vegas Layts
13.06 23:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
El Paso Locomotive 1:1 Finiks RayzingFiniks Rayzing
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Monterey Bay
D L L D W
01.08 23:00 UTC+0 USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Monterey Bay 2:2 LexingtonLexington
26.07 00:00 UTC+0 USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Monterey Bay 1:2 Oranzh Kaunti SK
19.07 00:30 UTC+0 USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Monterey Bay 2:3 Finiks RayzingFiniks Rayzing
04.07 23:00 UTC+0 USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Monterey Bay 0:0 San-AntonioSan-Antonio
11.06 00:00 UTC+0 USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Monterey Bay 2:1 Sporting JaxSporting Jax
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points