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01.08.2026 00:30 UTC
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01.08.2026 00:30 UTC
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USA. USL
Las Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Las Vegas Lights — 56%
Pure model vs market (1 · Las Vegas Lights): model 56% · market 37% Δ +19 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win Las Vegas Lights 56.1%, draw 20.3%, win Phoenix Rising 23.6%. Model favourite — Las Vegas Lights.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Las Vegas Lights (odds2.55)
Score 2:1
confidence 56%
- • Model backs Las Vegas Layts: probability 56% vs 39% on the line (odds 2.55)
- • edge over the line +17 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Las Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising August 1, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Phoenix Rising. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.57 / X 3.56 / 2 2.57
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 ✓ Pick
36.7%
X
26.5%
2
36.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
USL ChampionshipLeague table
Las Vegas Lights
ARRAY
Phoenix Rising
ARRAY
Best price
across 10 books
1
2.65
Unibet
X
3.56
Pinnacle
2
2.67
Betano
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Las Vegas Lights
W-D-L 5-1-4
Scored 1.50
Conceded 1.49
xG 1.24
xGA 1.55
Phoenix Rising
W-D-L 3-3-4
Scored 1.20
Conceded 1.60
xG 1.33
xGA 1.44
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Las Vegas Lights
Rating 1472
xG 1.21
Win 35%
Phoenix Rising
Rating 1488
xG 1.25
Win 37%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Las Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising
Form
4/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Las Vegas Lights
36.3%
56.1%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
26.4%
20.3%
draw risk
Phoenix Rising
37.3%
23.6%
market favourite
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
56.1% / 20.3% / 23.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,626 / 1,367
Las Vegas Lights / Phoenix Rising
RD
193 / 174
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,241-2,012 / 1,019-1,715
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.52
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 23.6%
X
3.50
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.54
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 56.1%
Double chance
12
1.25
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 79.7%
1X
1.45
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 76.4%
X2
1.44
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 43.9%
Handicap
2 0
1.85
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.85
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.68
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.04
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.26
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.57
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.26 44.3% |
| yes | 1.57 63.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.23 81.3% | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.42 70.4% | 1.48 67.6% |
| x2 | 1.43 69.9% | 1.45 69.0% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.12 32.1% | |
| X | 2.26 44.3% |
| 3.16 31.7% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.65 60.6% |
| Under 1 | 2.12 47.2% |
Match center
Las Vegas Lights
W
W
L
W
Las Vegas Lights
1:0
Detroyt
Las Vegas Lights
2:1
San-Antonio
San-Antonio
Las Vegas Lights
1:2
El-Paso Lokomotiv
El-Paso Lokomotiv
Las Vegas Lights
2:1
Birmingem
3
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.5
Scored
1.0
Conceded
9
Points
Phoenix Rising
W
W
L
D
L
Phoenix Rising
4:3
Khartford Atletik
Khartford Atletik
Phoenix Rising
3:2
Monterey Bey
Phoenix Rising
1:3
Kolorado Springs
Phoenix Rising
1:1
El-Paso Lokomotiv
El-Paso Lokomotiv
Phoenix Rising
0:2
Luisvill Siti
Luisvill Siti
2
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
1.8
Scored
2.2
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLas Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising
Las Vegas Lights
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Las Vegas Lights - Phoenix Rising breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form