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USA. USL
USA. USL
28.07.2026 21:30 UTC
28.07.2026 21:30 UTC
Not started

USA. USL

Louisville City - Birmingham Legion

Football
Louisville City
Louisville City
- : -
Not started
B
Birmingham Legion
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Louisville City — 50%

Pure model vs market (1 · Louisville City): model 50% · market 65% Δ −15 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Louisville City49.8%
X · draw21.0%
2 · Birmingham Legion29.2%

Model estimate: win Louisville City 49.8%, draw 21.0%, win Birmingham Legion 29.2%. Model favourite — Louisville City.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Louisville City (odds2.01) Score 1:0 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Luisvill Siti: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 2.01)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Louisville City - Birmingham Legion July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Louisville City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.42 / X 4.50 / 2 6.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 65.2%
X 20.6%
2 14.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 21:30 UTC
Match center

Louisville City - Birmingham Legion

Form 5/4 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Form Match Participants H2H
More needed
Market fonbet, BetBoom, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Line fonbet, BetBoom, odds
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Louisville City - 49.8% model pick
Draw - 21.0% draw risk
Birmingham Legion - 29.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 49.8% / 21.0% / 29.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,609 / 1,482 Louisville City / Birmingham Legion
RD 160 / 177 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,289-1,928 / 1,128-1,836 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.50 market consensus · no value · model 29.2%
X 4.50 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 49.8%
Double chance
12 1.16 market consensus · no value · model 79.0%
1X 1.08 market consensus · no value · model 70.8%
X2 2.65 market consensus · value +33.0% · model 50.2%

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Double chance

Outcome Betcity
12 1.16 86.2%
1x 1.08 92.6%
x2 2.65 37.7%

Handicap

Outcome Betcity
2.07 48.3%
1.67 59.9%

Total

Outcome Betcity
Over 3.5 2.20 45.5%
Under 3.5 1.59 62.9%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity
1.42 70.4%
X 4.50 22.2%
6.50 15.4%
Match center
Louisville City
L W D W D
18.07 14:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Louisville City 1:3 PittsburgPittsburg
04.07 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Louisville City 1:0 Khartford AtletikKhartford Atletik
13.06 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Louisville City 2:2 Brooklyn
11.06 00:30 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Louisville City 2:0 Finiks RayzingFiniks Rayzing
03.06 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Louisville City 1:1 Birmingem
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
8 Points
Birmingham Legion
D L L D
05.07 21:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Birmingham Legion 1:1 MayamiMayami
02.07 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Birmingham Legion 1:2 Detroyt
13.06 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Birmingham Legion 1:2 Las Vegas LaytsLas Vegas Layts
03.06 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Birmingham Legion 1:1 Luisvill SitiLuisvill Siti
0 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLouisville City - Birmingham Legion

Louisville City
1 matches total
Birmingham Legion
Louisville City: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Birmingham Legion: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (1:1, 03.06 22:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (03.06 22:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

03.06 22:00 UTC USA: Chempionship YuSL Standings
Luisvill Siti
1:1
Birmingem