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Start
28.07.2026 21:30 UTC
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28.07.2026 21:30 UTC
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USA. USL
Louisville City - Birmingham Legion
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:
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Not started
B
Birmingham Legion
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Louisville City — 65%
Pure model vs market (1 · Louisville City): model 50% · market 66% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Louisville City 64.9%, draw 19.9%, win Birmingham Legion 15.3%. Model favourite — Louisville City.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Louisville City (odds2.01)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Luisvill Siti: probability 50% vs 50% on the line (odds 2.01)
- • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Louisville City - Birmingham Legion July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Louisville City.
Line favourite market consensus: Louisville City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.38 / X 4.63 / 2 6.28
- 1X2 market: Louisville City 65.8% / X 19.7% / Birmingham Legion 14.5%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.0%
1 ✓ Pick
65.9%
X
19.6%
2
14.5%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Louisville City 65%
💹 Market
Louisville City 6583%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Louisville City - Birmingham Legion
Form
5/4
recent games
H2H
1
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
H2H
Line
More needed
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
yes
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Louisville City
65.8%
64.9%
market and model agree
Draw
19.7%
19.9%
draw risk
Birmingham Legion
14.5%
15.3%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
64.9% / 19.9% / 15.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,609 / 1,482
Louisville City / Birmingham Legion
RD
160 / 177
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,289-1,928 / 1,127-1,837
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.29
market consensus · no value · model 15.3%
X
4.62
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.38
market consensus · no value · model 64.9%
Double chance
12
1.16
market consensus · no value · model 80.1%
1X
1.08
market consensus · no value · model 84.7%
X2
2.65
market consensus · no value · model 35.1%
Total
Over 2.5
1.49
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.43
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.40 71.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.39 71.9% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.40 71.4% | |
| X | 4.60 21.7% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.55 22.0% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.60 21.7% |
| 6.00 16.7% | 6.52 15.3% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.30 15.9% | 6.50 15.4% | 6.50 15.4% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.16 86.2% |
| 1x | 1.08 92.6% |
| x2 | 2.65 37.7% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 0_1 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_2 | 29.00 3.5% |
| 0_3 | 67.00 1.5% |
| 1_0 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 1_1 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 1_2 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 1_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 1_4 | 101.00 1.0% |
| 2_0 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 2_1 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 2_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 2_3 | 34.00 2.9% |
| 2_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 3_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 3_1 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 3_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 3_3 | 46.00 2.2% |
Handicap
| Outcome | Betcity |
|---|---|
| 2.07 48.3% | |
| 1.67 59.9% |
Match center
Louisville City
L
W
D
W
D
Louisville City
1:3
Pittsburg
Pittsburg
Louisville City
1:0
Khartford Atletik
Khartford Atletik
Louisville City
2:2
Brooklyn
Louisville City
2:0
Finiks Rayzing
Finiks Rayzing
Louisville City
1:1
Birmingem
2
Wins
2
Draws
1
Losses
1.4
Scored
1.2
Conceded
8
Points
Birmingham Legion
D
L
L
D
Birmingham Legion
1:1
Mayami
Mayami
Birmingham Legion
1:2
Detroyt
Birmingham Legion
1:2
Las Vegas Layts
Las Vegas Layts
Birmingham Legion
1:1
Luisvill Siti
Luisvill Siti
0
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.5
Conceded
2
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLouisville City - Birmingham Legion
Louisville City
1
matches total
Louisville City: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Birmingham Legion: 0 (0%)
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
2 goals (1:1, 03.06 22:00 UTC)
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
1:1 (03.06 22:00 UTC)
draw with the most goals
Overall statistics
Match history
Luisvill Siti
1:1
Birmingem
Unlock the full match prediction
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form