USA. USL
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Sacramento Republic — 55%
Pure model vs market (1 · Sacramento Republic): model 53% · market 71% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Sacramento Republic 55.4%, draw 20.5%, win Sporting JAX 24.1%. Model favourite — Sacramento Republic.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.89 52.9% |
| yes | 1.82 55.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.10 90.9% | 1.13 88.5% |
| 1x | 1.03 97.1% | 1.04 96.2% |
| x2 | 3.05 32.8% | 3.10 32.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.76 56.8% | |
| X | 2.72 36.8% |
| 6.90 14.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.21 45.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.60 62.5% |
Sacramento Republic
Rod Aylend
Talsa
Sporting JAX
El-Paso Lokomotiv
Pittsburg
Full head-to-head historySacramento Republic - Sporting JAX
The Sacramento Republic - Sporting JAX breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
