New York Red Bulls meet Orlando City SC on August 1, 2026 in the USA. MLS.
Recent form (W-D-L): New York Red Bulls 1-0-1, Orlando City SC 1-1-0. The market favourite is New York Red Bulls at roughly 41%. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1New York Red Bulls — 40%
Pure model vs market (1 · New York Red Bulls): model 25% · market 41%Δ −16 ppmodel estimates below the market
40%1
1 · New York Red Bulls40.3%
X · draw23.2%
2 · Orlando City SC36.5%
Model estimate: win New York Red Bulls 40.3%, draw 23.2%, win Orlando City SC 36.5%. Model favourite — New York Red Bulls.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Orlando City SC (odds1.97)Score 1:2confidence 50%
•Model backs Orlando Siti: probability 50% vs 51% on the line (odds 1.97)
•no edge over the line (-1 pp) — informational only
•Expected score 1:2.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction New York Red Bulls - Orlando City SC August 1, 2026
Football math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like New York Red Bulls.
Line favourite market consensus: New York Red Bulls. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 market: New York Red Bulls 41.1% / X 23.5% / Orlando City SC 35.4%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 6.1%
141.1%
X23.4%
235.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
Major League Soccer
League table
New York Red Bulls
#1822 ptsGP 176-4-726:37
Orlando City SC
#2220 ptsGP 176-2-928:44
Best price
across 12 books
12.31Pinnacle
X4.2010Bet
22.77Pinnacle
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Injuries and absences
M. Ojeda — Thigh InjuryR. Mosquera — Thigh InjuryJ. Ruvalcaba — Yellow CardsO. Valencia — Yellow CardsC. Guske — International dutyA. Mehmeti — Red CardN. Miller — Knee Injury
Source: sstats_content
Model form (Glicko)
New York Red Bulls
Rating 1427xG 1.43Win 38%
Orlando City SC
Rating 1481xG 1.40Win 37%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
New York Red Bulls2:2Orlando City SC
12.30
X4.59
22.64
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
LIVE
Now in play
score 1:0 · 23'
Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.
LIVE
1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)
23'
61%22%17%
New York Red Bulls (1)Draw (X)Orlando City SC (2)
Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.
LIVE
Match momentum (live)
1:023'
New York Red BullsOrlando City SC
19Attacks16
13Dangerous attacks8
3Shots on target0
28%Control (ball-safe)59%
2Corners2
3Fouls2
Live momentum from Sportradar (attacks/shots/control). Updates during the match.
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
New York Red Bulls41.3%40.3%market and model agree
Draw23.4%23.2%draw risk
Orlando City SC35.3%36.5%
xG-1.43 : 1.40
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P240.3% / 23.2% / 36.5%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,258 / 1,726
New York Red Bulls / Orlando City
RD284 / 245
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD690-1,827 / 1,235-2,217
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
25.50
Fonbet · no value · model 36.5%
X4.30
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.53
Fonbet · no value · model 40.3%
Double chance
121.22
Fonbet · no value · model 76.8%
1X1.15
Fonbet · no value · model 63.5%
X22.45
Fonbet · value +46.2% · model 59.7%
Handicap
2 -11.88
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.51.69
market consensus · line only
2 +14.60
Fonbet · line only
2 04.05
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.16
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.54.60
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No4.00
Fonbet · line only
Yes1.20
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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