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USA. MLS
USA. MLS
01.08.2026 23:30 UTC
01.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Not started

USA. MLS

New York Red Bulls - Orlando City SC

Football
N
New York Red Bulls
- : -
Not started
O
Orlando City SC

New York Red Bulls meet Orlando City SC on August 1, 2026 in the USA. MLS.

Recent form (W-D-L): New York Red Bulls 1-0-1, Orlando City SC 1-1-0. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 New York Red Bulls — 41%

Pure model vs market (1 · New York Red Bulls): model 25% · market 42% Δ −17 pp model estimates below the market

1 · New York Red Bulls41.4%
X · draw23.3%
2 · Orlando City SC35.3%

Model estimate: win New York Red Bulls 41.4%, draw 23.3%, win Orlando City SC 35.3%. Model favourite — New York Red Bulls.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Orlando City SC (odds1.97) Score 1:2 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Orlando Siti: probability 50% vs 51% on the line (odds 1.97)
  • • no edge over the line (-1 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction New York Red Bulls - Orlando City SC August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: New York Red Bulls. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.27 / X 4.00 / 2 2.75

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 41.8%
X 23.7%
2 34.5%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Major League Soccer
League table
New York Red Bulls
#1822 ptsGP 176-4-726:37
Orlando City SC
#2220 ptsGP 176-2-928:44
Best price across 12 books
1 2.29 Pinnacle
X 4.20 10Bet
2 2.88 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
New York Red Bulls
W-D-L 3-2-5 Scored 1.49 Conceded 2.20 xG 1.60 xGA 1.74 Corners 5.3
Orlando City SC
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 2.20 Conceded 1.99 xG 1.45 xGA 1.91 Corners 3.8

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Injuries and absences
M. Ojeda — Thigh Injury R. Mosquera — Thigh Injury J. Ruvalcaba — Yellow Cards O. Valencia — Yellow Cards C. Guske — International duty A. Mehmeti — Red Card N. Miller — Knee Injury

Source: sstats_content

Model form (Glicko)
New York Red Bulls
Rating 1427 xG 1.44 Win 39%
Orlando City SC
Rating 1481 xG 1.36 Win 36%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Market 1 41.8% @ 2.27 / X 23.7% @ 4.00 / 2 34.5% @ 2.75
Match center

New York Red Bulls - Orlando City SC

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
New York Red Bulls 42.5% 41.4% market and model agree
Draw 23.6% 23.3% draw risk
Orlando City SC 34.0% 35.3%
xG - 1.49 : 1.38

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 41.4% / 23.3% / 35.3% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,258 / 1,726 New York Red Bulls / Orlando City
RD 284 / 245 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 690-1,827 / 1,236-2,217 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.72 market consensus · no value · model 35.3%
X 3.97 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.25 market consensus · no value · model 41.4%
Double chance
12 1.22 market consensus · no value · model 76.7%
1X 1.42 market consensus · no value · model 64.7%
X2 1.60 market consensus · no value · model 58.6%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.06 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
1 0 1.72 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 3.35 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.33 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 3.35 29.9%
yes 1.33 75.2%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.21 82.6% 1.23 81.3%
1x 1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4%
x2 1.59 62.9% 1.60 62.5%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.70 37.0%
X 2.75 36.4%
3.10 32.3%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 1.5 1.90 52.6%
Match center
New York Red Bulls
L W
25.07 20:30 UTC USA: MLS Standings
New York Red Bulls 0:2 Sharlott
22.07 21:30 UTC USA: MLS Standings
New York Red Bulls 4:2 Filadelfiya Yunion
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
2.0 Conceded
3 Points
Orlando City SC
D W
25.07 21:30 UTC USA: MLS Standings
Orlando City SC 0:0 NeshvillNeshvill
23.07 00:30 UTC USA: MLS Standings
Orlando City SC 4:0 San-Khose Ertkveyks
1 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
4 Points