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31.07.2026 22:30 UTC
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31.07.2026 22:30 UTC
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USA. MLS
Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo
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🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Sporting Kansas City — 48%
Model estimate: win Sporting Kansas City 48.3%, draw 19.6%, win Houston Dynamo 32.1%. Model favourite — Sporting Kansas City.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Sporting Kansas City (odds4.00)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Sporting Kanzas-Siti: probability 50% vs 25% on the line (odds 4.00)
- • edge over the line +25 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Houston Dynamo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.48 / X 3.80 / 2 1.86
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
1
26.4%
X
24.2%
2
49.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Statistics and model
Major League SoccerLeague table
Sporting Kansas City
ARRAY
Houston Dynamo
ARRAY
Best price
across 12 books
1
3.40
Pinnacle
X
3.75
Betfair
2
2.22
Dafabet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Sporting Kansas City
W-D-L 3-1-6
Scored 1.10
Conceded 2.70
xG 1.14
xGA 2.38
Corners 4.0
Houston Dynamo
W-D-L 6-2-2
Scored 1.31
Conceded 0.80
xG 1.50
xGA 1.53
Corners 2.9
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Sporting Kansas City
Rating 1392
xG 1.08
Win 27%
Houston Dynamo
Rating 1534
xG 1.51
Win 47%
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
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Match center
Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo
Form
3/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Sporting Kansas City
26.8%
48.3%
Glicko contrarian
Draw
24.0%
19.6%
draw risk
Houston Dynamo
49.2%
32.1%
market favourite
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
48.3% / 19.6% / 32.1%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,600 / 1,679
Sporting Kansas City / Houston Dynamo
RD
291 / 249
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,017-2,182 / 1,181-2,177
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.85
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 32.1%
X
3.79
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
3.43
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 48.3%
Double chance
12
1.21
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 80.4%
1X
1.81
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 67.9%
X2
1.26
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 51.7%
Handicap
2 -1
2.50
market consensus · line only
2 0
1.43
market consensus · line only
1 +1
1.46
market consensus · line only
1 0
2.60
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.42
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.50
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.42 41.3% |
| yes | 1.50 66.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.19 84.0% | 1.22 82.0% |
| 1x | 1.77 56.5% | 1.85 54.1% |
| x2 | 1.24 80.7% | 1.27 78.7% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 4.00 25.0% | |
| X | 2.29 43.7% |
| 2.36 42.4% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 2.26 44.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
Match center
Sporting Kansas City
D
W
W
Sporting Kansas City
0:0
Los-Andzheles FK
Sporting Kansas City
2:1
Minnesota
Sporting Kansas City
1:0
Sent-Luis Siti
Sent-Luis Siti
2
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.3
Conceded
7
Points
Houston Dynamo
W
D
Houston Dynamo
3:0
Ostin FK
Houston Dynamo
1:1
DS Yunayted
1
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
2.0
Scored
0.5
Conceded
4
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historySporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo
Sporting Kansas City
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Sporting Kansas City - Houston Dynamo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form