Boston Legacy W take on Portland Thorns W on August 9, 2026 in the USA. Women. NWSL.
Recent form (W-D-L): Boston Legacy W 3-1-1, Portland Thorns W 1-1-3. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Boston Legacy W — 41%
Pure model vs market (1 · Boston Legacy W): model 56% · market 40%Δ +16 ppmodel estimates above the market
41%1
1 · Boston Legacy W41.2%
X · draw25.8%
2 · Portland Thorns W33.0%
Model estimate: win Boston Legacy W 41.2%, draw 25.8%, win Portland Thorns W 33.0%. Model favourite — Boston Legacy W.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Boston Legacy W - Portland Thorns W August 9, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Boston Legacy W. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Model form (Glicko)
Boston Legacy W
Rating 1443
Portland Thorns W
Rating 1516
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
%
Market consensus
Forecast by market
Match result
Boston Legacy W
40%
2.30
Draw
26%
3.50
Portland Thorns W
34%
2.70
Handicap
Boston Legacy W (0)
54%
1.75
Portland Thorns W (0)
46%
2.03
Total
Over 2.5
56%
1.65
Under 2.5
44%
2.12
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Boston Legacy W40.3%41.2%market and model agree
Draw26.0%25.8%draw risk
Portland Thorns W33.7%33.0%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P241.2% / 25.8% / 33.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,648 / 1,357
Boston Legacy (w) / Portland Thorns (w)
RD172 / 190
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,303-1,992 / 978-1,737
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.67
market consensus · no value · model 33.0%
X3.48
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
12.26
market consensus · no value · model 41.2%
Double chance
121.23
market consensus · no value · model 74.2%
1X1.37
market consensus · no value · model 67.0%
X21.53
market consensus · no value · model 58.8%
Handicap
2 02.01
market consensus · line only
1 01.71
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.51.64
market consensus · line only
Under 2.52.10
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No2.28
market consensus · line only
Yes1.56
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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Yuta Royals (Zh)
