Match center
Start
05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
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05.04.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished
USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights
3
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 El Paso Locomotive — 52%
Model estimate: win El Paso Locomotive 51.7%, draw 25.5%, win Las Vegas Lights 22.8%. Model favourite — El Paso Locomotive.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights April 5, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like El Paso Locomotive.
Strongest: El Paso Locomotive - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.62 / X 3.88 / 2 4.70
- 1X2 market: El Paso Locomotive 56.8% / X 23.7% / Las Vegas Lights 19.5%
- Glicko: El Paso Locomotive 51.7% / X 25.5% / Las Vegas Lights 22.8%
- Total 2.5: over probability 15.3%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
1
56.7%
X
23.7%
2
19.6%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.8%
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
55.2%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:0
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
El Paso Locomotive 52%
💹 Market
El Paso Locomotive 5678%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
El Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights
El Paso Locomotive: Win 1.80 El Paso Locomotive: Draw 3.50 Las Vegas Lights Win: 4.20 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.85 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.95 Individualnyy total golov El Paso Locomotive bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov El Paso Locomotive menshe …
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
3:2
Events
14
Statistics
22
Lineups
0
min
Event
Player
Team
7'
7' Normal Goal | A. Moreno | assist/sub out: R. Coronado
El Paso Locomotive
23'
23' Normal Goal | C. Pinzon | assist/sub out: B. Mines
Las Vegas Lights
34'
34' Normal Goal | R. Rubín
El Paso Locomotive
38'
38' Yellow Card | M. Ybarra
Las Vegas Lights
46'
46' Substitution 1 | A. Méndez | assist/sub out: Gabriel Torres
El Paso Locomotive
46'
46' Substitution 2 | K. Hoban | assist/sub out: A. Ortíz
El Paso Locomotive
48'
48' Normal Goal | A. Moreno
El Paso Locomotive
53'
53' Yellow Card | C. Pinzon
Las Vegas Lights
Metric
El Paso Locomotive
Las Vegas Lights
SStats
Zablokirovannye udary
3
1
final
Shots off target
1
3
final
Shots on target
5
4
final
Udary vsego
9
8
final
Fouls soversheno
15
15
final
Zheltye kartochki
1
1
final
Offsides
2
2
final
Ball possession, %
42
58
final
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
El Paso Locomotive
57.9%
51.7%
market and model agree
Draw
22.9%
25.5%
draw risk
Las Vegas Lights
19.2%
22.8%
xG
-
1.55 : 0.94
Total 2.5
Over 15.3%
-
Under 84.7%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.06
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.7% / 25.5% / 22.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,561 / 1,406
El Paso Locomotive / Las Vegas Lights
RD
148 / 142
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.70
market consensus · no value · model 22.8%
X
3.88
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.62
market consensus · no value · model 51.7%
Double chance
X2
2.21
market consensus · weak value +6.7% · model 48.3%
12
1.21
market consensus · no value · model 74.5%
1X
1.16
market consensus · no value · model 77.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5
2.26
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.71
market consensus · line only
2 +1
8.60
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.63
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.81
market consensus · no value · model 15.3%
Under 2.5
1.94
market consensus · weak value +64.4% · model 84.7%
Both teams to score
No
1.90
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.81
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | Pinnacle | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.60 62.5% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 3.75 26.7% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.99 25.1% | 3.75 26.7% |
| 4.66 21.5% | 4.60 21.7% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.90 20.4% | 4.60 21.7% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.91 52.4% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.91 52.4% |
| yes | 1.81 55.3% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.80 55.6% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 2.20 45.5% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.20 45.5% | 2.20 45.5% |
| home_away | 1.19 84.0% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.22 82.0% |
| home_draw | 1.15 87.0% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.13 88.5% | 1.17 85.5% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.0 | 1.04 96.2% |
| Over 1.25 | 1.15 87.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.24 80.7% |
| Over 1.75 | 1.30 76.9% |
| Over 2.0 | 1.38 72.5% |
| Over 2.25 | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.79 55.9% |
| Over 2.75 | 2.00 50.0% |
| Over 3.0 | 2.34 42.7% |
| Over 3.25 | 2.65 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.90 34.5% |
| Over 3.75 | 3.50 28.6% |
| Over 4.0 | 4.50 22.2% |
| Over 4.5 | 5.60 17.9% |
| Over 5.5 | 12.00 8.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 10.40 9.6% |
| Under 1.0 | 7.70 13.0% |
Match center
El Paso Locomotive
Founded
2018
Las Vegas Lights
Founded
2018
Match center
Full head-to-head historyEl Paso Locomotive - Las Vegas Lights
El Paso Locomotive
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
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