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Start
04.04.2026 23:00 UTC
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04.04.2026 23:00 UTC
Finished
USL Championship
Indy Eleven - Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1
:
1
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds — 37%
Model estimate: win Indy Eleven 35.2%, draw 27.5%, win Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.3%. Model favourite — Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Indy Eleven - Pittsburgh Riverhounds April 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Indy Eleven.
Line favourite market consensus: Indy Eleven. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.39 / X 3.18 / 2 2.77
- 1X2 market: Indy Eleven 38.3% / X 28.8% / Pittsburgh Riverhounds 33.0%
- Glicko: Indy Eleven 35.2% / X 27.5% / Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37.3%
- Total 2.5: over probability 11.2%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.4%
1
38.2%
X
28.7%
2
33.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: X
Main outcome
X
Agreement
3/4
Confidence
27.6%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:1
Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 37%
💹 Market
Indy Eleven 3825%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Indy Eleven - Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Indy Eleven: Win 2.45 Indy Eleven: Draw 3.20 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Win: 2.70 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 2.20 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 1.65 Individualnyy total golov Indy Eleven bolshe 1.5: 2.75 Individualnyy total golov Indy Eleven menshe 1.5: 1.40 Individualn…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:1
Events
9
Statistics
22
Lineups
0
min
Event
Player
Team
20'
20' Penalty | J. Blake
Indy Eleven
36'
36' Yellow Card | V. Souza
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
39'
39' Yellow Card | B. Rendon
Indy Eleven
68'
68' Substitution 1 | B. Etou | assist/sub out: E. Goldthorp
Pepê
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
74'
74' Yellow Card | N. Okello
Indy Eleven
77'
77' Substitution 2 | B. Sample | assist/sub out: R. Mertz
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
82'
82' Substitution 3 | P. Barnes | assist/sub out: M. Viera
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
82'
82' Substitution 1 | J. Blake | assist/sub out: D. Sing
Indy Eleven
Metric
Indy Eleven
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
SStats
Zablokirovannye udary
2
3
final
Shots off target
5
3
final
Shots on target
4
8
final
Udary vsego
11
14
final
Fouls soversheno
18
13
final
Zheltye kartochki
2
1
final
Offsides
2
2
final
Ball possession, %
34
66
final
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Indy Eleven
38.8%
35.2%
market favourite
Draw
28.0%
27.5%
draw risk
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
33.3%
37.3%
Glicko contrarian
xG
-
1.19 : 1.23
Total 2.5
Over 11.2%
-
Under 88.8%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk
Favourite-trap risk
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
35.2% / 27.5% / 37.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,518 / 1,508
Indy Eleven / Pittsburgh Riverhounds
RD
155 / 143
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.77
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 37.3%
X
3.18
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.39
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 35.2%
Double chance
X2
1.51
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 64.9%
12
1.31
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 72.5%
1X
1.40
market consensus · Glicko and market diverge · not marked as value · model 62.7%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.55
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.22
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.76
market consensus · line only
2 +1
4.94
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.14
market consensus · no value · model 11.2%
Under 2.5
1.66
market consensus · value +47.4% · model 88.8%
Both teams to score
No
1.83
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.87
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | Pinnacle | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.40 41.7% | 2.37 42.2% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.42 41.3% | 2.38 42.0% | |
| X | 3.30 30.3% | 3.15 31.8% | 3.00 33.3% | 3.35 29.9% | 3.10 32.3% |
| 2.75 36.4% | 2.75 36.4% | 2.80 35.7% | 2.82 35.5% | 2.75 36.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 1.82 55.0% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.85 54.1% |
| yes | 1.90 52.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.85 54.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.51 66.2% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.53 65.4% |
| home_away | 1.29 77.5% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.33 75.2% |
| home_draw | 1.39 71.9% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.40 71.4% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | 1.09 91.7% |
| Over 1.25 | 1.23 81.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.36 73.5% |
| Over 1.75 | 1.46 68.5% |
| Over 2.0 | 1.61 62.1% |
| Over 2.25 | 1.87 53.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.13 47.0% |
| Over 2.75 | 2.46 40.7% |
| Over 3.0 | 3.10 32.3% |
| Over 3.25 | 3.50 28.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.80 26.3% |
| Over 3.75 | 4.70 21.3% |
| Over 4.0 | 6.20 16.1% |
| Over 4.5 | 7.80 12.8% |
| Over 5.5 | 19.00 5.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 8.10 12.4% |
| Under 1.0 | 5.80 17.2% |
Match center
Indy Eleven
Founded
2013
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Founded
1999
Match center
Full head-to-head historyIndy Eleven - Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Indy Eleven
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form