Match center
Start
04.04.2026 21:00 UTC
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04.04.2026 21:00 UTC
Finished
USL Championship
Loudoun United - Birmingham Legion
2
:
2
Finished
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Loudoun United — 47%
Model estimate: win Loudoun United 46.7%, draw 25.4%, win Birmingham Legion 28.0%. Model favourite — Loudoun United.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Loudoun United - Birmingham Legion April 4, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Loudoun United.
Strongest: Loudoun United - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.02 / X 3.46 / 2 3.23
- 1X2 market: Loudoun United 45.2% / X 26.5% / Birmingham Legion 28.3%
- Glicko: Loudoun United 46.7% / X 25.4% / Birmingham Legion 28.0%
- Total 2.5: over probability 15.6%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.4%
1
45.3%
X
26.4%
2
28.3%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement
4/4
Confidence
46.2%
Total
Under 2.5
Score
1:0
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Loudoun United 47%
💹 Market
Loudoun United 4521%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Loudoun United - Birmingham Legion
Loudoun United: Win 2.20 Loudoun United: Draw 3.40 Birmingham Legion Win: 2.90 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.75 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.05 Individualnyy total golov Loudoun United bolshe 1.5: 1.83 Individualnyy total golov Loudoun United menshe 1.5: 1.83 Indiv…
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
4
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
2:2
Events
20
Statistics
22
Lineups
0
min
Event
Player
Team
15'
15' Substitution 1 | S. Young | assist/sub out: Pedro Santos
Loudoun United
16'
16' Normal Goal
Birmingham Legion
25'
25' Yellow Card | K. Hughes
Birmingham Legion
31'
31' Normal Goal
Loudoun United
42'
42' Yellow Card | J. Panayotou
Loudoun United
46'
46' Substitution 2 | J. Panayotou | assist/sub out: P. Niyongabire
Loudoun United
48'
48' Substitution 1 | P. Vassell | assist/sub out: S. Tregarthen
Birmingham Legion
48'
48' Substitution 2 | R. Hamouda | assist/sub out: D. McCartney
Birmingham Legion
Metric
Loudoun United
Birmingham Legion
SStats
Zablokirovannye udary
1
3
final
Shots off target
5
3
final
Shots on target
4
3
final
Udary vsego
10
9
final
Fouls soversheno
17
14
final
Zheltye kartochki
5
3
final
Offsides
2
1
final
Ball possession, %
49
51
final
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Loudoun United
45.7%
46.7%
market and model agree
Draw
26.2%
25.4%
draw risk
Birmingham Legion
28.1%
28.0%
xG
-
1.54 : 1.13
Total 2.5
Over 15.6%
-
Under 84.4%
Model check
-
-
Difference 0.01
Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
46.7% / 25.4% / 28.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,393 / 1,415
Loudoun United / Birmingham Legion
RD
151 / 155
rating uncertainty
HFA: -
HFA mu: -
MoV: -
N: N=1
P: glicko2_expected
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.23
market consensus · no value · model 28.0%
X
3.46
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.02
market consensus · no value · model 46.7%
Double chance
X2
1.72
market consensus · no value · model 53.3%
12
1.27
market consensus · no value · model 74.6%
1X
1.31
market consensus · no value · model 72.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.75
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.36
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
3.26
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.60
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.74
market consensus · no value · model 15.6%
Under 2.5
2.02
market consensus · weak value +70.5% · model 84.4%
Both teams to score
No
2.15
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.63
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | Pinnacle | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.04 49.0% | 2.02 49.5% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.58 27.9% | 3.30 30.3% |
| 3.32 30.1% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.10 32.3% | 3.33 30.0% | 3.20 31.3% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.15 46.5% |
| yes | 1.64 61.0% | 1.62 61.7% | 1.62 61.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair | William Hill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.71 58.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.73 57.8% |
| home_away | 1.26 79.4% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.30 76.9% |
| home_draw | 1.29 77.5% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.30 76.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.0 | 1.03 97.1% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.21 82.6% |
| Over 1.75 | 1.27 78.7% |
| Over 2.0 | 1.33 75.2% |
| Over 2.25 | 1.53 65.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.72 58.1% |
| Over 2.75 | 1.90 52.6% |
| Over 3.0 | 2.20 45.5% |
| Over 3.25 | 2.48 40.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 2.75 36.4% |
| Over 3.75 | 3.20 31.3% |
| Over 4.0 | 4.10 24.4% |
| Over 4.25 | 4.70 21.3% |
| Over 4.5 | 5.20 19.2% |
| Over 5.5 | 11.00 9.1% |
| Under 0.5 | 10.80 9.3% |
| Under 1.0 | 8.10 12.4% |
Match center
Loudoun United
Founded
2018
Birmingham Legion
Founded
2017
Match center
Full head-to-head historyLoudoun United - Birmingham Legion
Loudoun United
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.
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