Aral face Metallurg Bekabad on August 4, 2026 in the UZBEKISTAN: Pro Liga Standings.
Recent form (W-D-L): Aral 3-1-0, Metallurg Bekabad 1-2-2. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1Aral — 54%
Pure model vs market (1 · Aral): model 60% · market 54%Δ +6 ppmodel estimates above the market
54%1
1 · Aral53.9%
X · draw24.5%
2 · Metallurg Bekabad21.6%
Model estimate: win Aral 53.9%, draw 24.5%, win Metallurg Bekabad 21.6%. Model favourite — Aral.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Aral (odds1.64)Score 2:0confidence 61%
•Model backs Aral: probability 61% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.64)
•legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
•Expected score 2:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Aral - Metallurg Bekabad August 4, 2026
Football math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Aral. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.1%
3 books
153.5%
X24.8%
221.7%
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Aral53.5%53.9%market and model agree
Draw24.8%24.5%draw risk
Metallurg Bekabad21.7%21.6%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P253.9% / 24.5% / 21.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,851 / 1,516
Aral / Metallurg Bekabad
RD217 / 196
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,418-2,284 / 1,125-1,907
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
24.19
market consensus · no value · model 21.6%
X3.65
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.69
market consensus · no value · model 53.9%
Double chance
121.21
market consensus · no value · model 75.5%
1X1.16
market consensus · no value · model 78.4%
X21.96
market consensus · no value · model 46.1%
Handicap
2 +11.60
market consensus · line only
2 03.10
market consensus · line only
1 -12.25
market consensus · line only
1 01.31
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.51.67
market consensus · line only
Under 2.52.05
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No2.01
market consensus · line only
Yes1.71
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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