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Uzbekistan. Superleague
Uzbekistan. Superleague
01.08.2026 15:30 UTC
01.08.2026 15:30 UTC
Not started

Uzbekistan. Superleague

Dinamo Samarqand - Neftchi

Football
Dinamo Samarqand
Dinamo Samarqand
- : -
Not started
Neftchi
Neftchi
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Neftchi — 39%

Pure model vs market (2 · Neftchi): model 34% · market 39% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Dinamo Samarqand33.5%
X · draw27.6%
2 · Neftchi38.9%

Model estimate: win Dinamo Samarqand 33.5%, draw 27.6%, win Neftchi 38.9%. Model favourite — Neftchi.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

Xdraw (odds3.30) Score 1:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs nichyu: probability 50% vs 30% on the line (odds 3.30)
  • • edge over the line +20 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Dinamo Samarqand - Neftchi August 1, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Neftchi. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.85 / X 3.40 / 2 2.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.2%
1 33.0%
X 27.7%
2 39.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Super League
League table
Dinamo Samarqand
#920 ptsGP 146-2-624:25
ARRAY
Neftchi
#135 ptsGP 1411-2-133:6
ARRAY
Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Dinamo Samarqand
W-D-L 5-1-4 Scored 1.91 Conceded 1.79 xG 1.33 xGA 1.17
Neftchi
W-D-L 7-2-1 Scored 2.11 Conceded 0.51 xG 1.81 xGA 0.76

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Dinamo Samarqand
Rating 1520
Neftchi
Rating 1759

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Dinamo Samarqand 3 : 1 Neftchi
12.99
X3.37
22.50

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 01.08.2026 15:30 UTC
Market 1 33.0% @ 2.85 / X 27.7% @ 3.40 / 2 39.2% @ 2.40
Match center

Dinamo Samarqand - Neftchi

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Dinamo Samarqand 32.9% 33.5%
Draw 27.9% 27.6% draw risk
Neftchi 39.3% 38.9% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 33.5% / 27.6% / 38.9% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,724 / 1,742 Dinamo Samarqand / Neftchi Fargona
RD 236 / 239 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,253-2,195 / 1,264-2,220 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 38.9%
X 3.32 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.83 market consensus · no value · model 33.5%
Double chance
12 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 72.4%
1X 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 61.1%
X2 1.38 market consensus · no value · model 66.5%
Handicap
2 0 1.73 market consensus · line only
1 0 2.02 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.98 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.77 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.79 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 1.96 51.0%
yes 1.79 55.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.29 77.5% 1.29 77.5%
1x 1.54 64.9% 1.53 65.4%
x2 1.39 71.9% 1.37 73.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
3.41 29.3%
X 2.17 46.1%
3.06 32.7%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1 1.82 55.0%
Under 1 1.92 52.1%
Match center
Dinamo Samarqand
W W W
29.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Dinamo Samarqand 3:2 Kokand 1912Kokand 1912
23.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Dinamo Samarqand 2:1 Surkhon
18.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Dinamo Samarqand 2:1 KyzylkumKyzylkum
3 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.3 Scored
1.3 Conceded
9 Points
Neftchi
D W W
28.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Neftchi 1:1 NavbakhorNavbakhor
21.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Neftchi 5:1 SogdianaSogdiana
16.07 13:00 UTC UZBEKISTAN: Superliga Standings
Neftchi 2:1 BukharaBukhara
2 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.7 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyDinamo Samarqand - Neftchi

Dinamo Samarqand
0 matches total
Neftchi
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history