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Venezuela. Division 2
Venezuela. Division 2
29.07.2026 17:30 UTC
29.07.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Venezuela. Division 2

Union Atletico El Vigia - Deportivo Lara

Football
U
Union Atletico El Vigia
- : -
Finished
D
Deportivo Lara
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Deportivo Lara — 58%

Pure model vs market (2 · Deportivo Lara): model 43% · market 39% Δ +4 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Union Atletico El Vigia18.1%
market46%
X · draw23.8%
market15%
2 · Deportivo Lara58.1%
market39%

Model estimate: win Union Atletico El Vigia 18.1%, draw 23.8%, win Deportivo Lara 58.1%. Model favourite — Deportivo Lara.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Deportivo Lara (odds7.50) Score 0:2 confidence 64%
  • • Model backs Deportivo Lara: probability 64% vs 13% on the line (odds 7.50)
  • • edge over the line +50 pp — value pick
  • • Expected score 0:2.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union Atletico El Vigia - Deportivo Lara July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Union Atletico El Vigia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.30 / X 3.90 / 2 1.55

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 67.1%
1 46.0%
X 15.3%
2 38.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Union Atletico El Vigia 1 : 3 Deportivo Lara
15.63
X3.70
21.53

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

LIVE

Now in play

score 1:0 · 78'

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

LIVE

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

78'
71% 24% 6%
Union Atletico El Vigia (1) Draw (X) Deportivo Lara (2)

Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 17:30 UTC
Match center

Union Atletico El Vigia - Deportivo Lara

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Union Atletico El Vigia 17.0% 18.1%
Draw 23.9% 23.8% draw risk
Deportivo Lara 59.1% 58.1% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 18.1% / 23.8% / 58.1% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,376 / 1,553 Union Atletico El Vigia / Deportivo Lara
RD 260 / 270 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 857-1,895 / 1,013-2,092 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.54 market consensus · no value · model 58.1%
X 3.90 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.30 Fonbet · no value · model 18.1%
Double chance
12 1.20 Fonbet · no value · model 76.2%
1X 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 41.9%
X2 3.15 Fonbet · weak value +158.0% · model 81.9%
Handicap
2 -1 1.91 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.26 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.75 market consensus · line only
2 0 8.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 5.70 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.09 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.40 71.4% 1.76 56.8%
yes 2.75 36.4% 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.16 86.2% 1.22 82.0% 1.20 83.3%
1x 2.13 47.0% 2.32 43.1% 1.02 98.0%
x2 1.07 93.5% 1.12 89.3% 3.15 31.8%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
5.90 17.0%
X 2.13 47.0%
2.12 47.2%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.50 66.7%
Over 1 1.87 53.5%
Under 0.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 1 1.83 54.6%
Match center
Union Atletico El Vigia
D L
25.07 18:00 UTC Venezuela: Liga FUTVE 2 Standings
Union Atletico El Vigia 0:0 Yarakuyanos
31.05 17:30 UTC Venezuela: Liga FUTVE 2 Standings
Union Atletico El Vigia 1:7 Atletico Barinas
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
0.5 Scored
3.5 Conceded
1 Points
Deportivo Lara
D
25.07 19:00 UTC Venezuela: Liga FUTVE 2 Standings
Deportivo Lara 1:1 Atletico Barinas
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points