Hungary: NB III - Northwest Standings
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Balatonalmadi SE — 37%
Pure model vs market (1 · Balatonalmadi SE): model 26% · market 40% Δ −14 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Balatonalmadi SE 36.6%, draw 30.7%, win Moshonmadyarovar TE 32.6%. Model favourite — Balatonalmadi SE.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.49 67.1% |
| yes | 2.56 39.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.24 80.7% |
| 1x | 1.38 72.5% |
| x2 | 1.38 72.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.30 30.3% | |
| X | 1.80 55.6% |
| 4.49 22.3% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.70 58.8% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.04 49.0% |
Full head-to-head historyBalatonalmadi SE - Moshonmadyarovar TE
The Balatonalmadi SE - Moshonmadyarovar TE breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
