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31.07.2026 15:00 UTC
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31.07.2026 15:00 UTC
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UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
ADO Den Haag - Asteras Tripolis
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:
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Not started
A
Asteras Tripolis
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 ADO Den Haag — 55%
Pure model vs market (1 · ADO Den Haag): model 64% · market 56% Δ +8 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win ADO Den Haag 55.3%, draw 22.4%, win Asteras Tripolis 22.3%. Model favourite — ADO Den Haag.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1ADO Den Haag (odds1.68)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Den Khaag 🇳🇱: probability 50% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.68)
- • no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction ADO Den Haag - Asteras Tripolis July 31, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: ADO Den Haag. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.65 / X 4.10 / 2 4.30
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 ✓ Pick
56.0%
X
22.5%
2
21.5%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
ADO Den Haag
4
:
1
Asteras Tripolis
11.62
X3.98
24.31
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
ADO Den Haag - Asteras Tripolis
Form
4/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
ADO Den Haag
54.7%
55.3%
market and model agree
Draw
22.7%
22.4%
draw risk
Asteras Tripolis
22.6%
22.3%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
55.3% / 22.4% / 22.3%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
2,005 / 1,620
ADO Den Haag / Asteras Tripolis
RD
206 / 288
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,593-2,416 / 1,044-2,196
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.30
Fonbet · no value · model 22.3%
X
4.10
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.65
Fonbet · no value · model 55.3%
Double chance
12
1.19
Fonbet · no value · model 77.6%
1X
1.18
Fonbet · no value · model 77.7%
X2
2.10
Fonbet · no value · model 44.7%
Handicap
2 -1
1.67
Fonbet · line only
2 +1
1.67
market consensus · line only
2 0
3.12
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.07
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.55
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.30
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.27
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.59
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.27 44.1% |
| yes | 1.59 62.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.15 87.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.19 84.0% |
| 1x | 1.15 87.0% | 1.20 83.3% | 1.18 84.8% |
| x2 | 1.93 51.8% | 2.07 48.3% | 2.10 47.6% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.15 46.5% | |
| X | 2.39 41.8% |
| 4.60 21.7% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.25 80.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.30 43.5% |
| Under 0.5 | 3.59 27.9% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.55 64.5% |
Match center
Odds · 4 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.67 (Betcity) · X 4.1 (Pari) · 2 4.3 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.65 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Fonbet | 1.65 | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Betcity | 1.67 | 4 | 4 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.66 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
ADO Den Haag
W
W
W
W
ADO Den Haag
4:0
Lommel 🇧🇪
Lommel 🇧🇪
ADO Den Haag
3:2
Mekhelen 🇧🇪
Mekhelen 🇧🇪
ADO Den Haag
6:0
Westlands Elftal 🇳🇱
ADO Den Haag
5:1
Laakkwartier 🇳🇱
4
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
4.5
Scored
0.8
Conceded
12
Points
Asteras Tripolis
D
Asteras Tripolis
1:1
Sparta 🇳🇱
Sparta 🇳🇱
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyADO Den Haag - Asteras Tripolis
ADO Den Haag
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form