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28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
AEK Athens - Samsunspor
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:
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Not started
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Samsunspor
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 AEK Athens — 50%
Pure model vs market (1 · AEK Athens): model 55% · market 50% Δ +5 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win AEK Athens 50.2%, draw 22.4%, win Samsunspor 27.4%. Model favourite — AEK Athens.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1AEK Athens (odds1.82)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs AEK 🇬🇷: probability 50% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.82)
- • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction AEK Athens - Samsunspor July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AEK Athens.
Line favourite market consensus: AEK Athens. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.84 / X 3.97 / 2 3.42
- 1X2 market: AEK Athens 50.0% / X 23.1% / Samsunspor 26.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.8%
1
50.0%
X
23.2%
2
26.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
AEK Athens 50%
💹 Market
AEK Athens 5002%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
AEK Athens - Samsunspor
Form
4/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
AEK Athens
49.9%
50.2%
market and model agree
Draw
22.5%
22.4%
draw risk
Samsunspor
27.6%
27.4%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
50.2% / 22.4% / 27.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,721 / 1,516
AEK Athens / Samsunspor
RD
195 / 254
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,330-2,111 / 1,007-2,024
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.39
market consensus · no value · model 27.4%
X
3.99
market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.83
market consensus · no value · model 50.2%
Double chance
12
1.17
market consensus · no value · model 77.6%
1X
1.26
market consensus · no value · model 72.6%
X2
1.82
market consensus · no value · model 49.8%
Handicap
2 +1
1.52
market consensus · line only
2 0
2.61
market consensus · line only
1 -1
2.43
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.43
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.56
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.29
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.50
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.49
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Dafabet | Superbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.87 53.5% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.87 53.5% | |
| X | 4.10 24.4% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.95 25.3% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.85 26.0% |
| 3.32 30.1% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.45 29.0% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.40 29.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.50 40.0% |
| yes | 1.49 67.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.14 87.7% | 1.19 84.0% |
| 1x | 1.23 81.3% | 1.29 77.5% |
| x2 | 1.76 56.8% | 1.88 53.2% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_1 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 0_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_11 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 0_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 0_4 | 80.00 1.3% |
| 0_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_6 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_7 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_8 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_9 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 1_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 1_3 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 1_4 | 65.00 1.5% |
Match center
AEK Athens
W
W
D
W
AEK Athens
3:2
Zvolle 🇳🇱
Zvolle 🇳🇱
AEK Athens
2:1
Groningen 🇳🇱
AEK Athens
0:0
Vitess 🇳🇱
Vitess 🇳🇱
AEK Athens
2:1
Grafskhap 🇳🇱
Grafskhap 🇳🇱
3
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Samsunspor
D
L
Samsunspor
0:0
RAAL La Luvire 🇧🇪
RAAL La Luvire 🇧🇪
Samsunspor
1:2
Dyunkerk 🇫🇷
0
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
0.5
Scored
1.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAEK Athens - Samsunspor
AEK Athens
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The AEK Athens - Samsunspor breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form