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Start
29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
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29.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
AEK Athens - Samsunspor
1
:
2
Finished
S
Samsunspor
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 AEK Athens — 51%
Pure model vs market (1 · AEK Athens): model 55% · market 51% Δ +4 pp model estimates above the market
Model estimate: win AEK Athens 51.1%, draw 24.0%, win Samsunspor 24.9%. Model favourite — AEK Athens.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1AEK Athens (odds1.82)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
✗ outcome missed
- • Model backs AEK 🇬🇷: probability 50% vs 55% on the line (odds 1.82)
- • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction AEK Athens - Samsunspor July 29, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AEK Athens.
Strongest: AEK Athens - market and Glicko agree
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.79 / X 3.77 / 2 3.71
- 1X2 market: AEK Athens 51.1% / X 24.2% / Samsunspor 24.7%
- Glicko: AEK Athens 51.1% / X 24.0% / Samsunspor 24.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 9.3%
1
51.1%
X
24.3%
2
24.7%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1
1.80
→ 1.80
1X2 X
4.00
↓ 3.70
1X2 2
3.65
↑ 3.85
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
AEK Athens
3
:
1
Samsunspor
11.81
X3.70
24.08
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
AEK Athens 51%
💹 Market
AEK Athens 5106%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
AEK Athens - Samsunspor
Form
4/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
yes
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score
1:2
Events
0
Statistics
0
Lineups
0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2
We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
Option
Signal
Prediction / actual
Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 51.1% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.883 / LogLoss 1.391
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite
Audit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
home - 51.1% fact: away
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.883 / LogLoss 1.391
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
AEK Athens
50.8%
51.1%
market and model agree
Draw
24.3%
24.0%
draw risk
Samsunspor
24.9%
24.9%
1X2: 16 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
51.1% / 24.0% / 24.9%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,721 / 1,516
AEK Athens / Samsunspor
RD
195 / 254
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,330-2,111 / 1,007-2,024
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 24.9%
X
6.60
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.79
market consensus · no value · model 51.1%
Double chance
12
1.08
Fonbet · no value · model 76.0%
1X
9.50
Fonbet · weak value +613.6% · model 75.1%
X2
1.12
Fonbet · no value · model 48.9%
Handicap
2 -1
1.01
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
1.92
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.70
Fonbet · line only
2 0
1.60
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
2.60
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
1.43
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.30
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.60
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.83 54.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.75 57.1% | |
| X | 3.75 26.7% | 3.84 26.0% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.90 25.6% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.75 26.7% |
| 3.55 28.2% | 3.98 25.1% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.90 25.6% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.30 43.5% | 2.48 40.3% |
| yes | 1.60 62.5% | 1.55 64.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.14 87.7% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.08 92.6% |
| 1x | 1.23 81.3% | 1.29 77.5% | 9.50 10.5% |
| x2 | 1.76 56.8% | 1.88 53.2% | 1.12 89.3% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_1 | 12.00 8.3% |
| 0_2 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 0_4 | 81.00 1.2% |
| 1_0 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 1_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 1_4 | 56.00 1.8% |
| 1_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 2_0 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_3 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 2_4 | 56.00 1.8% |
| 2_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 3_0 | 13.00 7.7% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 1-0-0, avg 3.0 gls
2025-12-11 · AEK Afiny 2:1 Samsunspor
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.86 (Liga Stavok) · X 4.1 (Betcity) · 2 3.8 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.8 | 3.85 | 3.8 |
| Winline | 1.8 | 3.85 | 3.5 |
| Fonbet | 1.8 | 4.05 | 3.6 |
| Betcity | 1.82 | 4.1 | 3.3 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.86 | 3.9 | 3.4 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
AEK Athens
W
W
D
W
AEK Athens
3:2
Zvolle 🇳🇱
Zvolle 🇳🇱
AEK Athens
2:1
Groningen 🇳🇱
AEK Athens
0:0
Vitess 🇳🇱
Vitess 🇳🇱
AEK Athens
2:1
Grafskhap 🇳🇱
Grafskhap 🇳🇱
3
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.8
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Samsunspor
D
L
Samsunspor
0:0
RAAL La Luvire 🇧🇪
RAAL La Luvire 🇧🇪
Samsunspor
1:2
Dyunkerk 🇫🇷
0
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
0.5
Scored
1.0
Conceded
1
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAEK Athens - Samsunspor
AEK Athens
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form