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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
29.07.2026 10:00 UTC Match prediction
29.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Al Gharafa - Dibba Al Fujairah

Football
A
Al Gharafa
1 : 2
Finished
D
Dibba Al Fujairah
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Al Gharafa — 61%

Pure model vs market (1 · Al Gharafa): model 55% · market 60% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Al Gharafa ✓ Pick60.6%
market60%
X · draw21.6%
market22%
2 · Dibba Al Fujairah17.7%
market18%

Model estimate: win Al Gharafa 60.6%, draw 21.6%, win Dibba Al Fujairah 17.7%. Model favourite — Al Gharafa.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Al Gharafa (odds1.77) Score 2:1 confidence 56% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Al-Khilyal 🇸🇦: probability 56% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.77)
  • • no edge over the line (-1 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al Gharafa - Dibba Al Fujairah July 29, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Al Gharafa.

Line favourite market consensus: Al Gharafa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.57 / X 4.25 / 2 5.30
  • Glicko: Al Gharafa 60.6% / X 21.6% / Dibba Al Fujairah 17.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.1%
1 ✓ Pick 60.0%
X 22.2%
2 17.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.60 ↑ 100.00
1X2 X 4.70 ↑ 6.90
1X2 2 4.20 ↓ 1.06

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Match center

Al Gharafa - Dibba Al Fujairah

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 61.3% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.030 / LogLoss 1.558
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 61.3% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 1.030 / LogLoss 1.558
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Al Gharafa 61.0% 60.6% market and model agree
Draw 21.7% 21.6% draw risk
Dibba Al Fujairah 17.3% 17.7%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 60.6% / 21.6% / 17.7% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,703 / 1,513 Al Gharafa / Dibba Al Fujairah
RD 245 / 275 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,212-2,194 / 963-2,063 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.99 market consensus · no value · model 17.7%
X 4.22 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.52 market consensus · no value · model 60.6%
Double chance
12 1.18 market consensus · no value · model 78.4%
1X 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 82.3%
X2 2.40 market consensus · no value · model 39.4%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.80 market consensus · line only
2 0 3.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 2.26 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.30 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.55 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Leon
no 2.30 43.5%
yes 1.55 64.5%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
12 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0%
1x 1.11 90.1% 1.12 89.3%
x2 2.35 42.6% 2.44 41.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.02 49.5%
X 2.46 40.7%
4.77 21.0%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 0.5 1.54 64.9%
Over 1 2.35 42.6%
Over 1.5 2.20 45.5%
Over 2 2.02 49.5%
Under 0.5 2.32 43.1%
Under 1 1.53 65.4%
Under 1.5 1.60 62.5%
Under 2 1.77 56.5%
Match center
Al Gharafa
W W
24.07 14:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Al Gharafa 2:0 Mamelodi Sandauns 🇿🇦
19.07 14:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Al Gharafa 2:1 Shturm II 🇦🇹
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points
Dibba Al Fujairah
D
27.07 09:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Dibba Al Fujairah 1:1 Mamelodi Sandauns 🇿🇦
0 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
1 Points