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Start
28.07.2026 10:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished
World: Club Friendlies
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ - Merida AD πͺπΈ
A
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦
-
:
-
Finished
M
Merida AD πͺπΈ
π― PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ β 56%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Al-Nasr πΈπ¦): model 48% Β· market 47% Ξ +1 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ 55.7%, draw 25.7%, win Merida AD πͺπΈ 18.6%. Model favourite β Al-Nasr πΈπ¦.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Merida AD πͺπΈ (odds1.65)
Score 0:1
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Merida AD πͺπΈ: probability 50% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.65)
- • no edge over the line (-11 pp) β informational only
- • Expected score 0:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ - Merida AD πͺπΈ July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite market consensus: Al-Nasr πΈπ¦. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.50 / X 3.67 / 2 5.80
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin -15.5%
1
47.3%
X
32.3%
2
20.4%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction β’ nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦
4
:
1
Merida AD πͺπΈ
Score prediction: third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference β not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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Match center
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ - Merida AD πͺπΈ
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦
56.2%
55.7%
market and model agree
Draw
26.0%
25.7%
draw risk
Merida AD πͺπΈ
17.8%
18.6%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
55.7% / 25.7% / 18.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,404 / 1,350
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ / Merida AD πͺπΈ
RD
274 / 278
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
857-1,952 / 794-1,906
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.43
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 18.6%
X
3.51
market consensus Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.88
market consensus Β· weak value +4.6% Β· model 55.7%
Double chance
12
1.24
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 74.3%
1X
1.27
market consensus Β· weak value +3.4% Β· model 81.4%
X2
1.77
market consensus Β· no value Β· model 44.3%
Handicap
2 -1
1.68
market consensus Β· line only
2 +0.5
1.80
market consensus Β· line only
2 +1
1.72
market consensus Β· line only
2 0
1.81
market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.85
market consensus Β· line only
Under 2.5
1.88
market consensus Β· line only
Both teams to score
No
1.71
market consensus Β· line only
Yes
2.01
market consensus Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.71 58.5% |
| yes | 2.01 49.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.21 82.6% | 1.26 79.4% |
| 1x | 1.41 70.9% | 1.13 88.5% |
| x2 | 1.37 73.0% | 2.16 46.3% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 2.09 47.9% | |
| X | 2.08 48.1% |
| 6.60 15.2% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.54 64.9% |
| Over 1 | 1.93 51.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 2.26 44.3% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.23 44.8% |
| Under 1 | 1.78 56.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.57 63.7% |
Match center
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦
L
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦
1:2
Benfika (B) π΅πΉ
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
1.0
Scored
2.0
Conceded
0
Points
Merida AD πͺπΈ
L
Merida AD πͺπΈ
0:4
Benfika (B) π΅πΉ
0
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
0.0
Scored
4.0
Conceded
0
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAl-Nasr πΈπ¦ - Merida AD πͺπΈ
Al-Nasr πΈπ¦
0
matches total
Biggest win
β
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
β
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
β
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Al-Nasr πΈπ¦ - Merida AD πͺπΈ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
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