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31.07.2026 06:30 UTC
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31.07.2026 06:30 UTC
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UEFA Europa League. Second qualifying round. Second leg
Alaves πͺπΈ - Kastelon πͺπΈ
A
Alaves πͺπΈ
-
:
-
Not started
K
Kastelon πͺπΈ
π― PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Alaves πͺπΈ β 52%
Pure model vs market (1 Β· Alaves πͺπΈ): model 41% Β· market 53% Ξ β12 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Alaves πͺπΈ 52.4%, draw 24.9%, win Kastelon πͺπΈ 22.8%. Model favourite β Alaves πͺπΈ.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Alaves πͺπΈ (odds1.78)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Alaves πͺπΈ: probability 50% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.78)
- • no edge over the line (-6 pp) β informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alaves πͺπΈ - Kastelon πͺπΈ July 31, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves πͺπΈ.
Line favourite market consensus: Alaves πͺπΈ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.75 / X 3.67 / 2 4.23
- 1X2 market: Alaves πͺπΈ 52.9% / X 25.2% / Kastelon πͺπΈ 21.9%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.0%
1
52.9%
X
25.2%
2
21.9%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line β for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
1.73
β 1.73
1X2 X
3.70
β 3.70
1X2 P2
4.30
β 4.30
β odds shortened (money on this outcome), β drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction β’ nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Alaves πͺπΈ
2
:
1
Kastelon πͺπΈ
11.79
X3.70
24.22
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference β not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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π₯ Humans vs Machines
π Math model
Alaves πͺπΈ 52%
πΉ Market
Alaves πͺπΈ 5291%
Every pick locked before kickoff Β· public log
Match center
Alaves πͺπΈ - Kastelon πͺπΈ
Form
2/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Alaves πͺπΈ
53.1%
52.4%
market and model agree
Draw
25.1%
24.9%
draw risk
Kastelon πͺπΈ
21.9%
22.8%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
52.4% / 24.9% / 22.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,618 / 1,688
Alaves πͺπΈ / Kastelon πͺπΈ
RD
253 / 219
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,112-2,124 / 1,250-2,126
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.30
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 22.8%
X
3.70
Fonbet Β· draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.73
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 52.4%
Double chance
12
1.23
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 75.1%
1X
1.18
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 77.2%
X2
2.00
Fonbet Β· no value Β· model 47.6%
Handicap
2 -1
1.58
Fonbet Β· line only
2 +0.5
2.03
market consensus Β· line only
2 +1
1.56
market consensus Β· line only
2 0
3.20
market consensus Β· line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.72
Fonbet Β· line only
Under 2.5
2.00
Fonbet Β· line only
Both teams to score
No
2.11
market consensus Β· line only
Yes
1.74
market consensus Β· line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Dafabet | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.76 56.8% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.74 57.5% | |
| X | 3.74 26.7% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.74 26.7% |
| 4.30 23.3% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.30 23.3% | 4.33 23.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 2.11 47.4% |
| yes | 1.74 57.5% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.23 81.3% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.17 85.5% | 1.19 84.0% | 1.18 84.8% |
| x2 | 1.93 51.8% | 1.97 50.8% | 2.00 50.0% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 0_1 | 12.50 8.0% |
| 0_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_2 | 22.00 4.6% |
| 0_3 | 45.00 2.2% |
| 0_4 | 80.00 1.3% |
| 0_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_6 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_7 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_8 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_9 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 7.70 13.0% |
| 1_1 | 6.60 15.2% |
| 1_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_2 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 1_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 1_4 | 55.00 1.8% |
| 1_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 1-0-0, avg 3.0 gls
2025-07-26 Β· Alaves 2:1 Kastelon
Source: ruscore
Odds Β· 2 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.75 (Liga Stavok) Β· X 3.6 (Winline) Β· 2 4.2 (Liga Stavok)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Winline | 1.73 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.75 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
Source: ruscore Β· line comparison
Alaves πͺπΈ
W
D
Alaves πͺπΈ
1:0
Zhirona πͺπΈ
Alaves πͺπΈ
1:1
Eybar πͺπΈ
1
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.5
Conceded
4
Points
Kastelon πͺπΈ
D
W
W
Kastelon πͺπΈ
3:3
Zhirona πͺπΈ
Kastelon πͺπΈ
2:1
Valensiya πͺπΈ
Kastelon πͺπΈ
2:0
Sabadel πͺπΈ
2
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
2.3
Scored
1.3
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAlaves πͺπΈ - Kastelon πͺπΈ
Alaves πͺπΈ
0
matches total
Biggest win
β
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
β
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
β
draw with the most goals
Match history
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The Alaves πͺπΈ - Kastelon πͺπΈ breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form