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31.07.2026 06:30 UTC
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31.07.2026 06:30 UTC
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Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Alaves - Castellon
A
Alaves
-
:
-
Not started
C
Castellon
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Alaves — 52%
Pure model vs market (1 · Alaves): model 41% · market 52% Δ −11 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Alaves 52.2%, draw 25.1%, win Castellon 22.8%. Model favourite — Alaves.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Alaves (odds1.78)
Score 1:0
confidence 50%
- • Model backs Alaves 🇪🇸: probability 50% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.78)
- • no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
- • Expected score 1:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alaves - Castellon July 31, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alaves.
Line favourite market consensus: Alaves. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.75 / X 3.61 / 2 4.16
- 1X2 market: Alaves 52.5% / X 25.4% / Castellon 22.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.9%
1
52.5%
X
25.4%
2
22.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
1.73
↓ 1.60
1X2 X
3.70
↑ 3.90
1X2 P2
4.30
↑ 5.00
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Alaves
2
:
1
Castellon
11.72
X3.75
24.56
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Alaves 52%
💹 Market
Alaves 5250%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Alaves - Castellon
Form
2/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
Movement
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Alaves
52.9%
52.2%
market and model agree
Draw
25.2%
25.1%
draw risk
Castellon
21.9%
22.8%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
52.2% / 25.1% / 22.8%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,618 / 1,688
Alaves / Castellon
RD
253 / 219
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,112-2,124 / 1,250-2,126
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
4.50
Fonbet · no value · model 22.8%
X
3.75
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.68
Fonbet · no value · model 52.2%
Double chance
12
1.23
Fonbet · no value · model 74.9%
1X
1.16
Fonbet · no value · model 77.2%
X2
2.05
Fonbet · no value · model 47.8%
Handicap
2 -1
1.61
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
2.03
market consensus · line only
2 +1
7.10
Fonbet · line only
2 0
3.25
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.72
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.00
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.02
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.70
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Dafabet | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 55.9% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.78 56.2% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.77 56.5% | |
| X | 3.70 27.0% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.70 27.0% |
| 4.22 23.7% | 4.00 25.0% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.30 23.3% | 4.25 23.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.02 49.5% | 1.96 51.0% |
| yes | 1.70 58.8% | 1.86 53.8% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.21 82.6% | 1.23 81.3% | 1.23 81.3% |
| 1x | 1.14 87.7% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.16 86.2% |
| x2 | 2.10 47.6% | 2.12 47.2% | 2.05 48.8% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 9.50 10.5% |
| 0_1 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 0_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_2 | 19.00 5.3% |
| 0_3 | 60.00 1.7% |
| 0_4 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_6 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_7 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_8 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_9 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_1 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_2 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 1_3 | 31.00 3.2% |
| 1_4 | 80.00 1.3% |
| 1_5 | 100.00 1.0% |
Match center
Form & head-to-head
H2H 1-0-0, avg 3.0 gls
2025-07-26 · Alaves 2:1 Kastelon
Source: ruscore
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 1.78 (Betcity) · X 3.7 (Pari) · 2 4.3 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 1.75 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Winline | 1.73 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Fonbet | 1.75 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Betcity | 1.78 | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Liga Stavok | 1.75 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Alaves
W
D
Alaves
1:0
Zhirona 🇪🇸
Alaves
1:1
Eybar 🇪🇸
1
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
1.0
Scored
0.5
Conceded
4
Points
Castellon
D
W
W
Castellon
3:3
Zhirona 🇪🇸
Castellon
2:1
Valensiya 🇪🇸
Castellon
2:0
Sabadel 🇪🇸
2
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
2.3
Scored
1.3
Conceded
7
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAlaves - Castellon
Alaves
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Alaves - Castellon breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form