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Start
28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Alfreton Town - Mansfield Town
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:
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Finished
M
Mansfield Town
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
2 Mansfield Town — 65%
Pure model vs market (2 · Mansfield Town): model 56% · market 66% Δ −10 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Alfreton Town 14.9%, draw 19.8%, win Mansfield Town 65.4%. Model favourite — Mansfield Town.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
2Mansfield Town (odds3.45)
Score 0:3
confidence 73%
- • Model backs Mansfild Taun 🏴: probability 73% vs 29% on the line (odds 3.45)
- • edge over the line +44 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 0:3.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alfreton Town - Mansfield Town July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Mansfield Town.
Line favourite market consensus: Mansfield Town. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 6.45 / X 4.54 / 2 1.37
- 1X2 market: Alfreton Town 14.1% / X 19.9% / Mansfield Town 66.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 10.5%
1
14.0%
X
19.9%
2 ✓ Pick
66.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Alfreton Town
1
:
3
Mansfield Town
17.24
X4.60
21.34
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
LIVE
Now in play
score 0:4 · 74'
Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Mansfield Town 65%
💹 Market
Mansfield Town 6596%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Alfreton Town - Mansfield Town
Form
5/2
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Alfreton Town
14.2%
14.9%
Draw
19.8%
19.8%
draw risk
Mansfield Town
66.0%
65.4%
market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
14.9% / 19.8% / 65.4%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,132 / 1,574
Alfreton Town / Mansfield Town
RD
198 / 252
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
737-1,528 / 1,071-2,078
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 65.4%
X
7.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
6.43
market consensus · no value · model 14.9%
Double chance
12
1.06
Fonbet · no value · model 80.2%
1X
10.00
Fonbet · no value · model 34.6%
X2
1.02
Fonbet · no value · model 85.1%
Handicap
2 -1
1.68
market consensus · line only
2 +1
1.19
Fonbet · line only
2 0
1.01
Fonbet · line only
1 -1
2.45
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.16
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
4.40
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.20
Fonbet · line only
Yes
3.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor | Dafabet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.24 13.8% | 5.75 17.4% | 6.00 16.7% | 7.00 14.3% | 7.00 14.3% | 6.60 15.2% | |
| X | 4.60 21.7% | 4.50 22.2% | 4.35 23.0% | 4.75 21.1% | 4.60 21.7% | 4.80 20.8% |
| 1.34 74.6% | 1.38 72.5% | 1.40 71.4% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.36 73.5% | 1.40 71.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.20 83.3% | 1.97 50.8% |
| yes | 3.85 26.0% | 1.78 56.2% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.11 90.1% | 1.16 86.2% | 1.06 94.3% |
| 1x | 2.50 40.0% | 2.75 36.4% | 10.00 10.0% |
| x2 | 1.05 95.2% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.02 98.0% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 1xBet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 0_1 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 0_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_2 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 0_3 | 8.50 11.8% |
| 0_4 | 13.00 7.7% |
| 0_5 | 26.00 3.9% |
| 0_6 | 65.00 1.5% |
| 0_7 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_8 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 0_9 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_0 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 1_1 | 8.00 12.5% |
| 1_10 | 100.00 1.0% |
| 1_2 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 1_3 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 1_4 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 1_5 | 31.00 3.2% |
Match center
Odds · 4 bookmakers
Best price: 1 6.3 (Pari) · X 4.7 (Pari) · 2 1.41 (Winline)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| Winline | 6 | 4.5 | 1.41 |
| Fonbet | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| Betcity | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Alfreton Town
L
L
L
D
L
Alfreton Town
0:1
Roterkhem 🏴
Alfreton Town
0:2
Derbi Kaunti 🏴
Derbi Kaunti 🏴
Alfreton Town
1:2
Boston Yunayted 🏴
Boston Yunayted 🏴
Alfreton Town
0:0
Berton Albion 🏴
Berton Albion 🏴
Alfreton Town
0:5
Notts Kaunti 🏴
Notts Kaunti 🏴
0
Wins
1
Draws
4
Losses
0.2
Scored
2.0
Conceded
1
Points
Mansfield Town
L
W
Mansfield Town
3:4
Barrou 🏴
Mansfield Town
2:1
Retford 🏴
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
2.5
Scored
2.5
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAlfreton Town - Mansfield Town
Alfreton Town
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Unlock the full match prediction
The Alfreton Town - Mansfield Town breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
- Match history & form