Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage
Aris Limassol take on Al Sadd on August 6, 2026 in the Fonbet Russian Cup. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Aris Limassol 0-1-2, Al Sadd 0-0-2. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Al Sadd — 42%
Pure model vs market (2 · Al Sadd): model 36% · market 42% Δ −6 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Aris Limassol 31.9%, draw 26.5%, win Al Sadd 41.6%. Model favourite — Al Sadd.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.21 82.6% | 1.27 78.7% |
| 1x | 1.52 65.8% | 1.61 62.1% |
| x2 | 1.29 77.5% | 1.36 73.5% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.51 28.5% | |
| X | 2.21 45.3% |
| 2.76 36.2% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 1 | 1.71 58.5% |
| Under 1 | 2.06 48.5% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.66 60.2% | |
| 2.15 46.5% | 2.17 46.1% | — | |
| — | — | 2.13 47.0% | |
| 1.59 62.9% | 1.61 62.1% | — |
Korona 🇵🇱
Legiya 🇵🇱
Sigma Olomouts 🇨🇿
Full head-to-head historyAris Limassol - Al Sadd
The Aris Limassol - Al Sadd breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
