Russia. Premier League. Season 26/27
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Pontevedra β 40%
Pure model vs market (2 Β· Pontevedra): model 39% Β· market 41% Ξ β2 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Arosa 32.4%, draw 28.1%, win Pontevedra 39.5%. Model favourite β Pontevedra.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds β reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data β for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| no | 1.82 55.0% |
| yes | 1.92 52.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.24 80.7% | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.46 68.5% | 1.55 64.5% |
| x2 | 1.30 76.9% | 1.37 73.0% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 3.99 25.1% | |
| X | 1.99 50.3% |
| 2.88 34.7% |
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.44 69.4% |
| Over 1 | 2.11 47.4% |
| Under 0.5 | 2.61 38.3% |
| Under 1 | 1.65 60.6% |
Full head-to-head historyArosa - Pontevedra
The Arosa - Pontevedra breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
