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28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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28.07.2026 16:30 UTC
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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Aston Villa - Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
A
Aston Villa
-
:
-
Not started
R
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Aston Villa — 47%
Pure model vs market (1 · Aston Villa): model 46% · market 48% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market
Model estimate: win Aston Villa 47.5%, draw 25.5%, win Real Sosedad 🇪🇸 27.0%. Model favourite — Aston Villa.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Aston Villa (odds1.65)
Score 3:0
confidence 73%
- • Model backs Aston Villa 🏴: probability 73% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.65)
- • edge over the line +12 pp — value pick
- • Expected score 3:0.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Aston Villa - Real Sosedad 🇪🇸 July 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Aston Villa.
Line favourite market consensus: Aston Villa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.92 / X 3.55 / 2 3.53
- 1X2 market: Aston Villa 48.0% / X 25.9% / Real Sosedad 🇪🇸 26.1%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.6%
1
48.0%
X
25.9%
2
26.1%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1
2.05
↓ 2.00
1X2 X
3.65
↑ 3.70
1X2 P2
3.30
↑ 3.35
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Aston Villa
3
:
1
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
12.04
X3.50
23.44
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
Buy the full AI analysis
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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model
Aston Villa 47%
💹 Market
Aston Villa 4801%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center
Aston Villa - Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
Football, Aston Villa - Real Sosedad, 28 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Aston Villa - Real Sosedad, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Club Friendlies 2026.
Form
2/3
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Tournament
Line
Movement
Overview
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
yes
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Aston Villa
47.6%
47.5%
market and model agree
Draw
25.8%
25.5%
draw risk
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
26.7%
27.0%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
47.5% / 25.5% / 27.0%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,600 / 1,582
Aston Villa / Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
RD
255 / 255
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,091-2,109 / 1,072-2,092
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
3.35
Fonbet · no value · model 27.0%
X
3.70
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
2.00
Fonbet · no value · model 47.5%
Double chance
12
1.25
Fonbet · no value · model 74.5%
1X
1.30
Fonbet · no value · model 73.0%
X2
1.75
Fonbet · no value · model 52.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.81
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.42
Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5
1.72
market consensus · line only
2 +1
5.20
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.55
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
2.30
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.45
Fonbet · line only
Yes
1.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | BetVictor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 52.6% | 1.97 50.8% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | |
| X | 3.70 27.0% | 3.62 27.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.65 27.4% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% |
| 3.65 27.4% | 3.52 28.4% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 4.00 25.0% | 3.40 29.4% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 2.45 40.8% | 2.27 44.1% |
| yes | 1.50 66.7% | 1.56 64.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% |
| x2 | 1.70 58.8% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.75 57.1% |
Exact Score
| Outcome | 10Bet |
|---|---|
| 0_0 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 0_1 | 11.00 9.1% |
| 0_2 | 17.00 5.9% |
| 0_3 | 41.00 2.4% |
| 0_4 | 91.00 1.1% |
| 1_0 | 7.50 13.3% |
| 1_1 | 6.50 15.4% |
| 1_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 1_3 | 21.00 4.8% |
| 1_4 | 56.00 1.8% |
| 1_5 | 126.00 0.8% |
| 2_0 | 9.00 11.1% |
| 2_1 | 7.00 14.3% |
| 2_2 | 10.00 10.0% |
| 2_3 | 23.00 4.4% |
| 2_4 | 61.00 1.6% |
| 3_0 | 15.00 6.7% |
| 3_1 | 11.00 9.1% |
Match center
Odds · 5 bookmakers
Best price: 1 2.08 (Betcity) · X 3.65 (Fonbet) · 2 3.3 (Pari)
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.05 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Winline | 2.06 | 3.55 | 3.2 |
| Fonbet | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.3 |
| Betcity | 2.08 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Liga Stavok | 2.05 | 3.5 | 3.15 |
Source: ruscore · line comparison
Aston Villa
L
W
Aston Villa
1:2
Portu 🇵🇹
Aston Villa
5:0
Uolsoll 🏴
1
Wins
0
Draws
1
Losses
3.0
Scored
1.0
Conceded
3
Points
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
W
D
D
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
2:1
Vulverkhempton 🏴
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
0:0
Rasing 🇪🇸
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
2:2
Po 🇫🇷
1
Wins
2
Draws
0
Losses
1.3
Scored
1.0
Conceded
5
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAston Villa - Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
Aston Villa
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1
Aston Villa
Team 2
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
Aston Villa
Team comparison
Real Sosedad 🇪🇸
1
Games
1
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
1
Scored
2
2
Conceded
1
0
Points
3
0
Attacks
0
0
Dangerous attacks
0
0
Big chances
0
0
Shots on goal
0
0
Udary v stvor
0
Aston Villa Real Sosedad 1 Games 1 0 Wins 1 0 Draws 0 1 Losses 0 1 Scored 2 Conceded 1 0 Points 3 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 1 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Glavnye trenery Glavnye trenery Unai Emeri Glavnye trenery No dannykh Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 49% 27% 24% Double chance 38% 36% 26% Materialy po prognozam Flik v liderakh, Safonov — srazu za nim. Chego zhdat ot quarter-final Ligi chempionov Amorim or Zakharyan! Kto vyigraet Ligu Evropy? «Khetafe» — «Real Sosedad». Zhelanie Zakharyana ispolnitsya «Barcelona» — «Real»: «detskiy sad» Khavi ne spravitsya s Bellingemom «Nyukasl Yunayted» — «Aston Villa». Eddi Khau khitree Unai Emeri «Atletiko» — «Real Sosedad». Diego Simeone verit v Antuana Grizmanna «Nyukasl Yunayted» — «Aston Villa». Eddi Khau brosit vyzov Unai Emeri «Liverpul» — «Aston Villa». Proschalnyy akkord Firmino «Barcelona» — «Real Sosedad». U Khavi poryadok s motivatsiey «Aston Villa» — «Tottenkhem». Garri Keyn ostavit Unai Emeri bez evrokubkov CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.com
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- Full AI consensus of 7 models
- Win probabilities & value flags
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