PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
28.07.2026 10:00 UTC
28.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ - Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ

Football
A
Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
- : -
Finished
K
Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐ŸŽฏ PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ โ€” 51%

Pure model vs market (1 ยท Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ): model 37% ยท market 50% ฮ” โˆ’13 pp model estimates below the market

1 ยท Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ50.9%
X ยท draw24.1%
2 ยท Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ25.0%

Model estimate: win Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 50.9%, draw 24.1%, win Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 25.0%. Model favourite โ€” Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ (odds4.40) Score 0:1 confidence 50%
  • • Model backs Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ: probability 50% vs 23% on the line (odds 4.40)
  • • edge over the line +27 pp โ€” value pick
  • • Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ - Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ July 28, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.90 / X 3.70 / 2 3.75

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin โ€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 49.5%
X 25.4%
2 25.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds โ€” reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line โ€” for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 P1 1.88 โ†‘ 1.97
1X2 X 3.90 โ†“ 3.70
1X2 P2 3.60 โ†“ 3.45

โ†“ odds shortened (money on this outcome), โ†‘ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 28.07.2026 10:00 UTC
Match center

Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ - Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ

Form 0/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 51.8% 50.9% market and model agree
Draw 24.2% 24.1% draw risk
Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 24.0% 25.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 50.9% / 24.1% / 25.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,647 Atletiko ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ / Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
RD 350 / 253 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,142-2,152 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.75 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 25.0%
X 3.70 Fonbet ยท draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.90 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 50.9%
Double chance
12 1.25 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 75.9%
1X 1.25 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 75.0%
X2 1.85 Fonbet ยท no value ยท model 49.1%
Handicap
2 -1 1.45 Fonbet ยท line only
2 +1 6.00 Fonbet ยท line only
2 0 2.70 Fonbet ยท line only
1 -1 2.60 Fonbet ยท line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.80 Fonbet ยท line only
Under 2.5 1.95 Fonbet ยท line only
Both teams to score
No 2.07 Fonbet ยท line only
Yes 1.72 Fonbet ยท line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.07 48.3% 2.06 48.5%
yes 1.72 58.1% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome Fonbet
12 1.25 80.0%
1x 1.25 80.0%
x2 1.85 54.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.10 47.6%
X 2.44 41.0%
4.67 21.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.22 45.1%
Under 1.5 1.59 62.9%
Match center
Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
D W W
25.07 16:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 0:0 Valyadolid ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
23.07 16:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 2:1 Tenerife ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ
17.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies
Khetafe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ 1:0 Reding ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
2 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.3 Conceded
7 Points