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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

29.07.2026 17:30 UTC

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UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg

Atletiko 🇪🇸 - Khetafe 🇪🇸

Football

Atletiko 🇪🇸

- : -

Not started

Khetafe 🇪🇸

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Atletiko 🇪🇸 — 51%

Pure model vs market (1 · Atletiko 🇪🇸): model 37% · market 49% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Atletiko 🇪🇸50.9%

X · draw24.1%

2 · Khetafe 🇪🇸25.0%

Model estimate: win Atletiko 🇪🇸 50.9%, draw 24.1%, win Khetafe 🇪🇸 25.0%. Model favourite — Atletiko 🇪🇸.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Khetafe 🇪🇸 (odds4.40) Score 0:1 confidence 50%

• Model backs Khetafe 🇪🇸: probability 50% vs 23% on the line (odds 4.40)
• edge over the line +27 pp — value pick
• Expected score 0:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atletiko 🇪🇸 - Khetafe 🇪🇸 July 29, 2026

Football math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Atletiko 🇪🇸. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.90 / X 3.65 / 2 3.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%

1 49.5%

X 25.8%

2 24.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 P1 1.88 ↑ 1.97

1X2 X 3.90 ↓ 3.70

1X2 P2 3.60 ↓ 3.45

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 17:30 UTC

Match center

Atletiko 🇪🇸 - Khetafe 🇪🇸

Football, Atletiko M - Khetafe, 29 iyulya 2026, smotret onlayn translyatsiyu matches. Vo skolko nachalo matches Atletiko M - Khetafe, gde smotret pryamoy efir. Club Friendlies 2026.

Form 0/3 recent games

H2H 0 head-to-head matches

Market 3 model / bookmakers

SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.

Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.

Transfermarkt squad

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants Line Movement

More needed

H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore

Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries

Overview championat, soccer365

Table championat, Flashscore

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Atletiko 🇪🇸 51.8% 50.9% market and model agree

Draw 24.2% 24.1% draw risk

Khetafe 🇪🇸 24.0% 25.0%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 50.9% / 24.1% / 25.0% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,500 / 1,647 Atletiko 🇪🇸 / Khetafe 🇪🇸

RD 350 / 253 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 1,142-2,152 strength interval

HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 3.80 Fonbet · no value · model 25.0%

X 3.65 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.90 Fonbet · no value · model 50.9%

Double chance

12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 75.9%

1X 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 75.0%

X2 1.85 Fonbet · no value · model 49.1%

Handicap

2 -1 1.45 Fonbet · line only

2 +1 6.30 Fonbet · line only

2 0 2.70 Fonbet · line only

1 -1 2.65 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only

Under 2.5 1.88 Fonbet · line only

Both teams to score

No 1.98 Fonbet · line only

Yes 1.78 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome	Fonbet	Leon
no	1.98 50.5%	2.00 50.0%
yes	1.78 56.2%	1.72 58.1%

Double chance

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
12	1.25 80.0%	1.28 78.1%	1.25 80.0%
1x	1.22 82.0%	1.24 80.7%	1.25 80.0%
x2	1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome	Leon
	2.45 40.8%
X	2.23 44.8%
	4.46 22.4%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome	Leon
Over 1	1.79 55.9%
Over 1.5	2.22 45.1%
Under 1	1.92 52.1%
Under 1.5	1.59 62.9%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 6-2-1, avg 2.78 gls

2026-03-14 · Atletiko Madrid 1:0 Khetafe

2025-11-23 · Atletiko Madrid 1:0 Khetafe

2025-03-09 · Atletiko Madrid 1:2 Khetafe

2025-02-04 · Atletiko Madrid 5:0 Khetafe

2024-12-15 · Atletiko Madrid 1:0 Khetafe

Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.12 (Betcity) · X 3.7 (Pari) · 2 3.55 (Winline)

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Pari	2	3.7	3.35
Winline	1.91	3.65	3.55
Fonbet	2	3.7	3.35
Betcity	2.12	3.5	3.3
Liga Stavok	1.91	3.6	3.5

Source: ruscore · line comparison

Khetafe 🇪🇸

D W W

25.07 16:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Khetafe 🇪🇸 0:0 Valyadolid 🇪🇸

23.07 16:30 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Khetafe 🇪🇸 2:1 Tenerife 🇪🇸

17.07 15:00 UTC World: Club Friendlies

Khetafe 🇪🇸 1:0 Reding 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

2 Wins

1 Draws

0 Losses

1.0 Scored

0.3 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtletiko 🇪🇸 - Khetafe 🇪🇸

Atletiko 🇪🇸

0 matches total

Khetafe 🇪🇸

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Atletiko 🇪🇸

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Khetafe 🇪🇸

0 Games 0

0 Wins 0

0 Draws 0

0 Losses 0

0 Scored 0

0 Conceded 0

0 Points 0

0 Attacks 0

0 Dangerous attacks 0

0 Big chances 0

0 Shots on goal 0

0 Shots on target 0

Sootnoshenie statisticheskikh dannykh komand Atletiko M Khetafe 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0

Pochemu match «Atletiko» — «Arsenal» prevratitsya v mem V «Barsu» veryat, v «Liverpul» and «Real» — net.

Chego zhdat ot otvetnykh matches quarter-final LCh «Bavariya», «PSZh» and «Real» vpechatlili, no oni ne favority Ligi chempionov!

«Real» Khabi Alonso na shag vperedi «Barselony».

Chego zhdat ot novogo sezona v La Lige «Khetafe» — «Real Sosedad».

Zhelanie Zakharyana ispolnitsya «Atletiko» — «Real Sosedad».

Atletiko M Khetafe 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Iskhod v osnovnoe vremya 50% 33% 17% Double chance 42% 33% 25% Materialy po prognozam Nu, davay, napaday! Pochemu match «Atletiko» — «Arsenal» prevratitsya v mem V «Barsu» veryat, v «Liverpul» and «Real» — net. Chego zhdat ot otvetnykh matches quarter-final LCh «Bavariya», «PSZh» and «Real» vpechatlili, no oni ne favority Ligi chempionov! «Real» Khabi Alonso na shag vperedi «Barselony». Chego zhdat ot novogo sezona v La Lige «Khetafe» — «Real Sosedad». Zhelanie Zakharyana ispolnitsya «Atletiko» — «Real Sosedad». Diego Simeone verit v Antuana Grizmanna «Atletiko» — «Man Siti». Erling Kholand kogda-nibud ustaet? «Espanol» — «Atletiko». Grizmann podsuetitsya «Atletiko» — «Malorka». Grizmann igraet na nervakh «Reala» «Barcelona» — «Atletiko». Sensatsiya li eto? CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1330944' } }); CHAMP('tournament