Match center
Start
28.07.2026 13:00 UTC
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28.07.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League. Second qualifying rounds. Second Leg
Avellino - Real Forio
A
Avellino
-
:
-
Finished
R
Real Forio
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Avellino — 66%
Model estimate: win Avellino 66.3%, draw 16.1%, win Real Forio 17.6%. Model favourite — Avellino.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Avellino - Real Forio July 28, 2026
Football math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Avellino. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.03 / X 3.45 / 2 5.10
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 45.7%
1 ✓ Pick
66.6%
X
19.9%
2
13.5%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Avellino
6
:
0
Real Forio
11.00
X29.00
255.00
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
LIVE
Now in play
score 3:1 · 79'
Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.
LIVE
Match momentum (live)
3:1 79'
Avellino
Real Forio
Live momentum from Sportradar (attacks/shots/control). Updates during the match.
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Match center
Avellino - Real Forio
Form
3/0
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
3
model / bookmakers
SportsMole
preview
Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore
context
Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt
squad
Present in data
Market
Form
Match
Participants
Line
More needed
H2H
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament
championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad
championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement
Line history
Overview
championat, soccer365
Table
championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
pending
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Market and Glicko
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Outcome
Line
Glicko
Signal
Avellino
89.3%
66.3%
market and model agree
Draw
6.3%
16.1%
draw risk
Real Forio
4.4%
17.6%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P2
66.3% / 16.1% / 17.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating
1,806 / 1,500
Avellino / Real Forio
RD
255 / 350
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD
1,296-2,316 / 800-2,200
strength interval
HFA: 62
HFA mu: 0.357
MoV: on
N: N=1
P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
5.10
Fonbet · no value · model 17.6%
X
3.45
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1
1.03
Fonbet · no value · model 66.3%
Double chance
12
1.25
Fonbet · value +4.8% · model 83.9%
1X
1.13
Fonbet · no value · model 82.4%
X2
7.20
Fonbet · no value · model 33.7%
Handicap
2 0
7.00
market consensus · line only
1 0
1.08
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.06
Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5
6.70
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No
1.06
Fonbet · line only
Yes
6.70
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Both teams to score
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| no | 1.06 94.3% | 1.28 78.1% |
| yes | 6.70 14.9% | 3.46 28.9% |
Double chance
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.25 80.0% |
| 1x | 1.13 88.5% |
| x2 | 7.20 13.9% |
First Half Winner
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| 1.17 85.5% | |
| X | 4.67 21.4% |
| 29.00 3.5% |
Goals Over/Under First Half
| Outcome | Leon |
|---|---|
| Over 2 | 1.90 52.6% |
| Under 2 | 1.81 55.3% |
Match center
Avellino
W
W
W
Avellino
5:0
Sambenedetteze 🇮🇹
Avellino
3:1
Skafateze 🇮🇹
Avellino
24:0
Kastel di Sangro 🇮🇹
3
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
10.7
Scored
0.3
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyAvellino - Real Forio
Avellino
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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- Match history & form